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黄金科学技术 ›› 2023, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 823-834.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2023.05.041

• 采选技术与矿山管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

稀土产品全球贸易网络格局演化及其影响因素

廖秋敏1,2(),罗连英1()   

  1. 1.江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西 赣州 341000
    2.江西理工大学矿业贸易与投资研究中心,江西 赣州 341000
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-09 修回日期:2023-05-28 出版日期:2023-10-31 发布日期:2023-11-21
  • 通讯作者: 罗连英 E-mail:309144504@qq.com;3462230944@qq.com
  • 作者简介:廖秋敏(1980-),女,黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,从事国际贸易理论与政策、矿产品贸易方面的研究工作。309144504@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目“稀土产品全球贸易网络格局演化与中国战略地位提升研究”(21BGL182)

Evolution of the Global Trade Network Pattern of Rare Earth Products and Its Influencing Factors

Qiumin LIAO1,2(),Lianying LUO1()   

  1. 1.School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China
    2.Mining Trade and Investment Research Center,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China
  • Received:2023-03-09 Revised:2023-05-28 Online:2023-10-31 Published:2023-11-21
  • Contact: Lianying LUO E-mail:309144504@qq.com;3462230944@qq.com

摘要:

为了探讨稀土产品贸易网络格局演化影响机制,选取2009—2020年54个主要国家(地区)7种稀土产品的国际贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法分别从整体和个体层面对比分析了7种主要稀土产品贸易网络格局演化及个体结构特征,并运用指数随机图模型分析和解释了稀土产品贸易网络形成的基础机制。研究发现:(1)稀土矿、稀土氧化物、铈铁以及稀土永磁材料贸易网络的贸易联系趋于紧密,且所有稀土产品贸易网络具有较高的集团性和连通性,呈现出小世界特征,但是该特征趋于弱化;(2)稀土产品出口主要集中在少数稀土大国,稀土金属、铈化合物、稀土氧化物、铈铁和稀土铁合金贸易网络呈现明显的“富人俱乐部”现象;(3)核心国家相对固定,德国和中国均为核心国家,德国影响力优势趋于弱化,中国影响力有所提升;(4)互惠性、多连通性、传递闭合性、聚敛性和扩张性结构效应对7种稀土产品贸易网络演化具有显著的异质性影响。研究结果为我国缓解经贸摩擦、促进稀土国际经济合作提供了政策启示。

关键词: 稀土产品, 贸易网络, 社会网络分析, 格局演化, 影响因素, 指数随机图模型(ERGM)

Abstract:

Rare earths are listed as crisis minerals,key raw materials or strategic minerals by countries around the world.Taking the trade networks of main rare earth products as the research object,the research gets trade data of 7 kinds of rare earth products from 54 major countries(or regions) during the period of 2009—2020,and the evolution of 7 rare earth products trade networks was compared by social network analysis,and the basis of trade network formation mechanism was explained by using the Exponential Random Graph Model(ERGM) analysis method.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Trade network links of some rare earth products,such as rare earth mineral substances,compounds of rare-earth metals,Ferro-cerium and permanent magnet,are getting tight.While the overall structures of all the networks are still relatively loose.Trade networks of all rare earth products have a high community structure and connectivity,showing a small world property but gradually weakening.(2)In the trade networks of 7 rare earth products,it can be easily found that huge trade volumes are controlled by a few countries,with an obvious center-periphery phenomenon.Rich Club Phenomenon is significant in trade networks of rare earth metals,rare-earth compounds,cerium compounds,Ferro-cerium and Ferro-alloys.(3)Countries’ performance in Degree Centrality remain stable.Germany and China are both core countries,but Germany’s advantage is weakening while China strengthening.(4)Influences of mutualism,multi-connectivity,transitive closure,convergence and expansionary structural effects on trade network evolution of 7 rare earth products are significantly heterogeneous.The research results provide policy enlightenment for China to strengthen the strategic research and judgment of the new pattern and new situation of global rare earth product trade and alleviate economic and trade frictions.

Key words: rare earth products, trade network, social network analysis, pattern evolution, influencing factors, exponential random graph model(ERGM)

中图分类号: 

  • F742

表1

稀土产品名称及分类"

产业链产品编码产品名称
上游HS 253090代表海关编码前6位为253090的稀土产品,主要包括按重量计中重稀土总含量≥30%的稀土矿
中游HS 280530代表海关编码前6位为280530的稀土产品,主要包括稀土金属(不论是否互混合或熔合)、钪及钇
HS 284610代表海关编码前6位为284610的稀土产品,包括氧化铈、氢氧化铈、碳酸铈、氰化铈及铈的其他化合物
HS 284690代表海关编码前6位为284690的稀土产品,包括其他稀土金属、钪、钇及其混合物的化合物(铈除外)
下游HS 360690代表海关编码前6位为360690的稀土产品,主要包括铈铁合金
HS 720299

代表海关编码前6位为720299的稀土产品,包括按重量计中重稀土总含量≥30%的铁合金(按重量计稀土

元素总含量在10%以上)、稀土硅铁合金(按重量计稀土元素总含量在10%以上)、其他按重量计稀土元素

总含量在10%以上的铁合金

HS 850511代表海关编码前6位为850511的稀土产品,包括稀土永磁铁及稀土永磁体

表2

54个国家(地区)名单"

序号iso国名

所属

大洲

序号iso国名所属大洲
1ARE阿联酋亚洲28ITA意大利欧洲
2ARG阿根廷美洲29JPN日本亚洲
3AUS澳大利亚大洋洲30KAZ哈萨克斯坦亚洲
4AUT奥地利欧洲31KOR韩国亚洲
5BEL比利时欧洲32LUX卢森堡欧洲
6BRA巴西美洲33LVA拉脱维亚欧洲
7CAN加拿大美洲34MAC中国澳门亚洲
8CHE瑞士欧洲35MEX墨西哥美洲
9CHN中国亚洲36MKD北马其顿欧洲
10CZE捷克欧洲37MYS马来西亚亚洲
11DEU德国欧洲38NLD荷兰欧洲
12DNK丹麦欧洲39NOR挪威欧洲
13EGY埃及非洲40PHL菲律宾亚洲
14ESP西班牙欧洲41POL波兰欧洲
15EST爱沙尼亚欧洲42RUS俄罗斯欧洲
16FIN芬兰欧洲43SAU沙特阿拉伯亚洲
17FRA法国欧洲44SGP新加坡亚洲
18GBR英国欧洲45SVK斯洛伐克欧洲
19GRC希腊欧洲46SVN斯洛文尼亚欧洲
20HKG中国香港亚洲47SWE瑞典欧洲
21HRV克罗地亚欧洲48THA泰国亚洲
22HUN匈牙利欧洲49TUR土耳其亚洲
23IDN印尼亚洲50UKR乌克兰欧洲
24IND印度亚洲51USA美国美洲
25IRL爱尔兰欧洲52VNM越南亚洲
26IRN伊朗亚洲53ZAF南非非洲
27ISR以色列亚洲54ZMB赞比亚非洲

图1

2009—2020年7种稀土产品贸易网络整体网络密度指标演变"

表3

2009—2020年7种稀土产品贸易网络集聚系数及平均路径长度演变"

年份产品集聚系数

稀土矿

(HS 253090)

稀土金属

(HS 280530)

铈化合物

(HS 284610)

稀土氧化物

(HS 284690)

铈铁

(HS 360690)

稀土铁合金

(HS 720299)

稀土永磁材料

(HS 850511)

20090.600.620.560.640.520.510.67
20130.600.570.570.590.530.500.68
20170.630.590.580.600.550.500.71
20200.650.500.600.610.550.500.72
年份产品平均路径长度

稀土矿

(HS 253090)

稀土金属

(HS 280530)

铈化合物

(HS 284610)

稀土氧化物

(HS 284690)

铈铁

(HS 360690)

稀土铁合金

(HS 720299)

稀土永磁材料

(HS 850511)

20091.702.062.192.051.952.041.54
20131.692.311.981.982.012.111.52
20171.692.291.961.911.902.121.49
20201.662.401.961.811.942.031.44

表4

2009—2020年7种稀土产品贸易网络度数中心度指标前3名国家(地区)演变(稀土矿HS 253090)"

年份相对点出度相对点入度
排名国家指标值排名国家指标值
20091德国98.111德国64.15
2西班牙90.572美国56.60
3奥地利90.573英国52.83
20131德国94.341德国66.04
2荷兰90.572美国62.26
3奥地利88.683英国58.49
20171德国94.341德国67.92
2意大利86.792美国64.15
3波兰84.913中国62.26
20201德国94.341美国66.04
2荷兰92.452德国64.15
3意大利86.793中国58.49

图2

2020年7种稀土产品贸易网络度分布"

表5

2009—2020年7种稀土产品贸易网络点强度指标前3名国家(地区)演变(稀土矿:HS 253090)"

年份相对出强度相对入强度
排名国家指标值排名国家指标值
20091西班牙4.831中国3.06
2德国4.742德国2.32
3中国2.413法国2.22
20131澳大利亚2.931中国2.63
2中国1.992德国1.51
3美国1.863日本1.08
20171澳大利亚2.121中国2.13
2美国0.352马来西亚0.20
3中国0.243德国0.14
20201澳大利亚2.021中国2.09
2中国0.322美国0.23
3荷兰0.283德国0.18

图3

2009—2020年7种稀土产品贸易网络中主要国家中介中心度演变(稀土矿和稀土金属)"

表6

指数随机图模型的变量介绍"

统计项对应变量图形变量解释
内生性结构变量(弧)edges网络中边的基础效应,相当于截距项
互惠性mutual网络中的互惠结构对稀土产品全球贸易网络的影响
聚敛性gwidegree网络中的“星型”聚敛结构对稀土产品全球贸易网络的影响
积极性gwodegree网络中的“星型”发散结构对稀土产品全球贸易网络的影响
传递性gwesp网络中的传递闭合结构对稀土产品全球贸易网络的影响
多连通性gwdsp网络中的多连通结构对稀土产品全球贸易网络的影响
节点属性变量发送者属性lnGDP经济体的经济发展水平、人口规模和经济制度对其发送稀土产品贸易网络关系的影响
lnpop
lnEFI
接收者属性lnGDP经济体的经济发展水平、人口规模和经济制度对其接收稀土产品贸易网络关系的影响
lnpop
lnEFI
嵌入性网络协变量距离网络lndist经济体间的地理距离、宗教关系、语言关系、接壤关系或贸易协定关系对稀土产品贸易网络的影响
宗教网络relig
语言网络comlang
接壤网络border
贸易协定RTA

表7

2020年7种稀土产品ERGM的回归结果(2%的贸易额阈值)"

网络统计量模型1模型2模型3模型4模型5模型6模型7
稀土矿稀土金属铈化合物稀土氧化物铈铁稀土铁合金稀土永磁材料
边(弧)edges-46.01***-36.15***-31.64***-32.78***-42.91***-23.56***-53.45***
(3.73)(7.47)(5.48)(4.36)(4.85)(3.57)(4.34)
内生性结构效应mutual0.15-0.14-0.69*-0.260.150.250.56***
(0.16)(0.35)(0.31)(0.24)(0.19)(0.23)(0.17)
gwesp0.060.44***0.94***1.53***0.65***0.75***-0.42
(0.19)(0.13)(0.14)(0.19)(0.13)(0.13)(0.37)
gwdsp-0.15***-0.01-0.03-0.05**-0.10***-0.09***-0.12**
(0.02)(0.03)(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)(0.02)(0.04)
gwideg3.94*1.59*3.33***3.50***4.32***2.90***5.75
(1.54)(0.73)(0.82)(0.81)(1.07)(0.76)(3.71)
gwodeg-0.95-2.04***-1.48**0.72-0.51-0.79-2.95
(0.90)(0.50)(0.51)(0.62)(0.51)(0.49)(2.02)
发送者属性lnGDP0.64***0.42**0.24**0.43***0.19**0.20**0.96***
(0.08)(0.15)(0.09)(0.09)(0.07)(0.07)(0.08)
lnpop0.15*0.110.070.010.30***0.21**0.19*
(0.07)(0.13)(0.08)(0.07)(0.07)(0.06)(0.08)
lnEFI1.50**1.961.020.753.77***-0.032.62***
(0.48)(1.08)(0.73)(0.60)(0.66)(0.54)(0.64)
接收者属性lnGDP0.21*0.66**0.030.010.47***0.220.20*
(0.08)(0.21)(0.14)(0.11)(0.10)(0.11)(0.09)
lnpop0.50***-0.060.50***0.38***-0.010.24*0.49***
(0.08)(0.16)(0.13)(0.10)(0.10)(0.10)(0.08)
lnEFI3.24***-0.122.27*2.00*2.09**1.343.79***
(0.60)(1.25)(1.03)(0.83)(0.77)(0.84)(0.64)
网络协变量lndist-1.03***-0.66***-0.46***-0.40***-0.92***-0.56***-1.06***
(0.08)(0.12)(0.09)(0.08)(0.09)(0.08)(0.08)
relig0.65**-0.350.07-0.220.74***0.53**0.82***
(0.21)(0.40)(0.27)(0.25)(0.22)(0.20)(0.23)
comlang-0.410.330.290.27-0.29-0.08-0.07
(0.18)(0.23)(0.18)(0.15)(0.18)(0.19)(0.19)
border1.51***0.350.181.24***0.72*1.24***0.77
(0.39)(0.35)(0.33)(0.31)(0.29)(0.26)(0.44)
RTA0.26*0.190.28*0.31*0.090.130.44***
(0.11)(0.18)(0.13)(0.12)(0.11)(0.12)(0.11)
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