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Gold Science and Technology ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 931-940.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.06.931

• Mining Technology and Mine Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on Cash Flow Forecasting and Simulation of Nonferrous Metal Mining Enterprises

Yiling LIU1,2(),Minggui ZHENG2,3()   

  1. 1. The Department of Economic Management，College of Applied Science of Jiangxi University of Science and Technology，Ganzhou 341000，Jiangxi，China
    2. Research Center of Mining Trade & Investment，Jiangxi University of Science and Technology，Ganzhou 341000，Jiangxi，China
    3. The School of Management，University of Science and Technology of China，Hefei 230026，Anhui，China
  • Received:2019-07-05 Revised:2019-09-04 Online:2019-12-31 Published:2019-12-24
  • Contact: Minggui ZHENG E-mail:lylzyf@126.com;mgz268@sina.com

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Abstract:

In recent years，the common problems faced by non-ferrous metal mining enterprises are overcapacity，declining prices and unstable operating environment.These directly lead to greater financial risks.Some enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy.Cash flow is the blood of enterprise development.Therefore，it is very important to make an early warning study on the cash flow problems of the operation activities，investment activities and financing activities based on the characteristics of operation of non-ferrous metal mining enterprises.Analyzing the dynamic balance of cash flow in terms of quantity，time，and structure ratio，and standardizing the operating procedures such as time，mode，cash inflows or outflows，it can prevent financial risks and play a proactive role.This paper analyzed the cash flow influencing factors of business activities，investment activities and financing activities.Selected six horizontal variables including the net cash flow of operating activities，investment activities and financing activities，retained profits，provident fund and cash.Selected 10 flow rate variables such as operating inflow and business outflow，and 49 other auxiliary variables.The enterprise cash flow early warning model was constructed by using the system dynamics modeling software Vensim-PLE，and the main mathematical equations of the model variables were given.Taking a copper mining enterprise for further application.Statistical methods，early warning techniques and mathematical methods were used to estimate the model parameters based on the investigated enterprise data and the industry regulations.The main constant parameters were set，the sensitive factors were selected for simulation operation.Taking 2017 as the initial point of simulation，the simulation period is 2018 to 2022.The simulation results show that the annual mineral output of the enterprise increases，and the amount of concentrate also increases，and the operating inflow will change with the price fluctuations.Net cash flows from operating activities declined in 2019，2021 and 2022.The environmental investment and total outflow of investment is tilted upwards，the increase in untreated waste is significantly reduced，and the curve is tilted downwards.Investment inflows are smaller than investment outflows，it lead to a downward trend in net cash flow from investments.After the increase of investment outflow，the capital pressure has increased.Under the lack of own funds，the financing demand has increased，which has caused the increase of financing inflow，and the net cash flow for financing has tended to increase.The simulation results are consistent with the actual results，which shows that the cash flow warning model built in this paper has a good applicability.This paper suggests in general that the investment decision should collect the detailed data information as far as possible，forecast the future cash flow trend，know the cash balance situation in a timely manner，do a good job in advance to cope with the shortage of funds，improve the profitability of funds.In business activities，when the net cash flow is negative，it is necessary to reduce production costs and give priority to mining rich mines.When the net cash flow is negative in the productive investment activities，we need to do a good job in the optimization and raise funds in advance.In fund-raising activities，it should pay attention to the financing method and cost in order to control the funding time and avoid the risks arising from the collapse of the funding chain.

Key words: nonferrous metals, mining enterprises, system dynamics, cash flow, prediction and simulation, simulation system

CLC Number: 

  • F416.1

Fig.1

Cash flow prediction model for nonferrous metal mining enterprises"

Fig.2

Simulated graph of net cash flow from operating activities"

Table 1

Numerical simulation of net cash flows from operating activities"

年份年出矿量/（×104 t）精矿/（×104 t）销售收入/万元经营活动净现金流量/万元
2017年1801299 30753 731
2018年19513107 20258 405
2019年20014107 59256 510
2020年20014112 46759 258
2021年20014112 82357 290
2022年20014114 07855 479

Fig.3

Simulated graph of net cash flow from investment activities"

Table 2

Numerical simulation of net cash flows from investing activities"

年份未处理固废量/（×104 t）固体废料处理量/（×104 t）环保投资/万元投资流出/万元投资活动净现金流量/万元
2017年235260307-193
2018年18119641 008-906
2019年13171 3951 439-1 347
2020年9211 6501 694-1 611
2021年8241 8051 850-1 775
2022年5261 9041 950-1 882

Fig.4

Simulated graph of net cash flow from financing activities"

Table 3

Numerical simulation of net cash flows from financing activities"

年份投资流出/万元长期负债/万元筹资流入/万元筹资活动净现金流量/万元
2017年30735155340
2018年1 00819217396
2019年1 43969287458
2020年1 694180358511
2021年1 850345434562
2022年1 950561511606
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