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黄金科学技术 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 632-640.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2022.04.016

• 采选技术与矿山管理 • 上一篇    

中国有色金属产业结构升级演进研究

刘贻玲1,2(),郑明贵1,3()   

  1. 1.江西理工大学矿业研究发展中心，江西 赣州 341000
    2.赣南科技学院，赣州市智慧金融重点实验室，江西 赣州 341000
    3.中国科学技术大学管理学院，安徽 合肥 230026
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-10 修回日期:2022-05-05 出版日期:2022-08-31 发布日期:2022-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 郑明贵 E-mail:niutianbaobao@yeah.net;mgz268@sina.com
  • 作者简介:刘贻玲（1982-），女，江西九江人，副教授，从事资源经济与管理方面研究工作。niutianbaobao@yeah.net
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国战略性矿产资源产业升级效果测度以及影响因素研究”(20YJC790087);国家社会科学基金项目“自愿型环境规制（VER）推动矿企生态创新的机理、效应和路径研究”(21BGL187)

A Study on the Industrial Structure Upgrading Evolution of Non-ferrous Metal in China

Yiling LIU1,2(),Minggui ZHENG1,3()   

  1. 1.Research Center of Mining Development, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, China
    2.Ganzhou Key Laboratory of Intelligent Finance, Gannan University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, China
    3.School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, Anhui, China
  • Received:2022-01-10 Revised:2022-05-05 Online:2022-08-31 Published:2022-10-31
  • Contact: Minggui ZHENG E-mail:niutianbaobao@yeah.net;mgz268@sina.com

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摘要：

基于已有文献，运用产业结构超前系数、Moore结构变化值、产业结构年均变动值以及产业结构升级高度值构建了反映产业结构升级方向、速率和程度的测算模型，测算了有色金属产业在产量追赶（1986—2001年）、规模快速扩张（2002—2011年）、转型发展（2012—2015年）和高质量发展（2016—2019年）4个阶段的产业结构升级演进情况。研究表明：（1）采选业超前系数在各个阶段逐步降低，冶炼及压延加工业超前系数则逐步上升。（2）有色金属产业在各个阶段的Moore值均接近于1；向量夹角值在前3个阶段呈现下降趋势，升级速度趋缓，第四阶段明显增加；向量夹角年均变化值前3个阶段比较稳定，第四阶段增速较快，远高于前3个阶段；产业结构年均变动值前2个阶段较稳定，第三阶段转型发展增速缓慢，第四阶段供给侧改革后有了新提升并维持在一定的水平。（3）采选业升级高度值在各个阶段有增减变化，处于动态调整状态；冶炼及压延加工业升级高度值保持持续增长趋势，有色金属产业后端升级效果更为显著。

关键词: 有色金属产业, 产业结构升级, 升级效果, 测算模型

Abstract:

The non-ferrous metal industry as a strategic and basic raw material has made great progress in the past 30 years for deepening reform and opening-up in China，but it is worth paying attention to the effect of industrial structure upgrading，especially before and after the supply-side reform.To better understand the process and effect of the upgrading of China’s non-ferrous metal industrial structure since the Seventh Five-Year Plan in 1986，based on the data from 1986 to 2019 of non-ferrous metal，this paper used the advanced coefficient，Moore structure change value，annual average change value and upgrade height value of industrial structure to construct a calculation model which reflects the direction，rate and degree of industrial structure upgrading.The industrial structure upgrading evolution of non-ferrous metal were calculated in four stages of output catch-up（1986—2001），rapid scale expansion（2002—2011），transformation and development （2012—2015） and high quality development（2016—2019）.The results show that the leading coefficient of mining and processing industry is decreasing in every stage，and the leading coefficient of smelting and pressing industry is increasing.The Moore value of the non-ferrous metal industry is close to 1 in all stages，the vector angle value shows a downward trend in the first three stages，the speed of upgrading slows down，then in the fourth stage increases obviously.The annual variation value of the vector angle is relatively stable in the first three stages，in the fourth stage the growth rate is faster than that in the first three stages.The average annual change value of industrial structure is relatively stable in the first two stages，the transformation and development in the third stage are slow，and after the supply-side reform，the average annual change value in the fourth stage has a new upgrade and remains at a certain level.The elevation value of the mining and processing industry has increased and decreased in various stages，and has been dynamically adjusted.The elevation value of the smelting and pressing industry has maintained a growing trend，and the non-ferrous metal industry has been upgraded more effectively.The conclusions of this paper are as follows：（1）After the supply-side reform，the over development of the non-ferrous metal industry has been effectively restrained，and the non-ferrous metal industry has been upgraded from low value-added to high value-added.（2）Over the past 30 years，the upgrading of the industrial structure of the non-ferrous metal industry has generally been in the process of optimization and upgrading，and the effect of supply-side reform has been remarkable.（3）The front end of the mining and selection industry is undergoing reform and adjustment，and the upgrading degree of the back end of the smelting and processing industry is rising rapidly，and take it to the next level.Research enlightenment：（1）From the direction of industrial upgrading，it is necessary to strengthen the mechanism of market capacity reduction and take effective measures to speed up the transformation and upgrading of smelting and calendering industries，this is significant for backend applications.（2）From the rate of industrial upgrading，adhering to the demand-oriented principle，we should accelerate the replacement of production capacity and the elimination of backward production capacity，raise labor productivity，and enhance the ability of processing enterprises to meet user needs quickly at low cost.We should intensify efforts to develop overseas resources for urgently needed mineral resources，provide more time for domestic supply-side reform.（3）From the perspective of industrial upgrading，we should strengthen scientific and technological innovation，improve the level of intensive processing，improve product quality，scientific and technological content，focus on the process to intelligent，flexible，refined and green.

Key words: non-ferrous metal industry, industrial structure upgrading, effect of upgrading, calculation model

中图分类号: 

  • F416.1

表1

1986—2019年有色金属产业主营业务收入分阶段统计"

产业类型指标1986—2001年2002—2011年2012—2015年2016—2019年
采选业平均值/亿元209.611 619.576 095.074 440.11
占产业比重平均值/%17.8411.8111.317.67
平均增长率/%16.7528.866.05-23.86
冶炼及压延加工业平均值/亿元965.0412 090.9947 784.6853 417.11
占产业比重平均值/%82.1688.1988.6992.33
平均增长率/%18.4832.28.641.66
有色金属产业平均值/亿元1 174.6513 710.5653 879.7557 857.23
平均增长率/%18.231.768.35-0.51

表2

1986—2019年有色金属产业用工人数分阶段统计"

产业类型指标1986—2001年2002—2011年2012—2015年2016—2019年
采选业平均值/万人65.9842.5352.9336.76
阶段平均增长率/%0-35.5424.45-30.55
冶炼及压延加工业平均值/万人105.83130.28200.16187.44
阶段平均增长率/%023.1053.64-6.35
有色金属产业平均值/万人171.81197.4253.09224.20
阶段平均增长率/%014.8928.21-11.41

表3

1986—2019年有色金属采选业、冶炼及压延加工业劳动生产率分阶段统计"

阶段年份劳动生产率/（万元/人）阶段年份劳动生产率/（万元/人）
采选业冶炼及压延加工业采选业冶炼及压延加工业
第一阶段19860.712.22第二阶段200418.6846.5
19870.852.42200526.7560.01
19881.062.93200637.8593.9
19891.263.45200740.63114.65
19901.363.4200850.55111.6
19911.424.12200957.13118.22
19921.665.06201069.24152.28
19932.436.58201192.35191.41
19943.127.81平均41.6594.66
19953.8210.63第三阶段2012107.49223.8
19964.1210.142013111.92230.31
19974.8511.342014116.91245.6
19985.5713.672015124.95253.77
19996.2416.04平均115.32238.37
20007.7219.75第四阶段2016138.91273.19
20018.6520.682017128.86248.72
平均3.438.772018110.99310.44
第二阶段20029.9824.89201993.75320.01
200313.333.16平均118.13288.09

表4

1986—2019年有色金属产业超前系数"

产业类型超前系数
T1=1986—2001T2=2002—2011T3=2012—2015T4=2016—2019Tall=1986—2019
采选业1.05960.56420.1937-0.28060.6544
冶炼及压延加工业0.98701.09521.17621.28981.0767

图1

1986—2019年有色金属产业结构（a）和向量夹角（b）变化速率"

图2

1986—2019年有色金属产业结构升级高度平均值"

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