img

QQ群聊

img

官方微信

高级检索

黄金科学技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 155-163.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2021.01.115

• 采选技术与矿山管理 • 上一篇    

基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型的黄金洞尾矿库综合安全评价

石勇(),史秀志(),丁文智   

  1. 中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南 长沙 410083
  • 收稿日期:2020-06-24 修回日期:2020-11-20 出版日期:2021-02-28 发布日期:2021-03-22
  • 通讯作者: 史秀志 E-mail:stoney3511_csu@126.com;baopo@csu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:石勇(1996-),男,江西南昌人,硕士研究生,从事微震预警和安全评价研究工作。stoney3511_csu@126.com

Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Huangjindong Tailing Pond Based on Improved Entropy Weight Method-Unascertained Measure Model

Yong SHI(),Xiuzhi SHI(),Wenzhi DING   

  1. School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,Hunan,China
  • Received:2020-06-24 Revised:2020-11-20 Online:2021-02-28 Published:2021-03-22
  • Contact: Xiuzhi SHI E-mail:stoney3511_csu@126.com;baopo@csu.edu.cn

摘要:

针对尾矿库安全评价中存在的不确定性问题,以黄金洞尾矿库为例,引入未确知测度理论,分析评价对象与评价指标之间的关系,建立一个包含5个影响因素和18个影响因子的尾矿库综合安全指标评价体系,结合基于层次分析法—熵权法综合确定指标权重,构建基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型。根据该模型的指标评价体系和分级模式确定指标测度函数,代入各指标实测值,得出多指标综合测度向量,并借助置信度识别准则准确判定尾矿库安全等级和各指标未确知测度重要度。结果表明:黄金洞尾矿库安全等级为Ⅱ级,尾矿库处于较安全状态。经比较,指标测度重要度从大到小为地基沉陷(B3)>洪水漫顶(B1)>安全管理(B4)>坝体溃坝(B2)>自然因素(B5),可知地基沉陷对尾矿库安全影响程度最大,应加强对地基沉陷的管理。基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型得到的评价结果与实际结果相吻合,为尾矿库安全性评价提供了一种可行的方法。

关键词: 尾矿库, 改进熵权法, 未确知测度, 安全评价, 置信度识别准则, 测度函数

Abstract:

In recent years,the state has strict requirements on the safety production of mining enterprises.The safety problem has become one of the most important problems of each mining enterprise.Tailings pond is an indispensable part in the production process of mining enterprises,so the safety of tailing pond is closely connected with the local development.The dam break of tailing pond will cause great loss and serious damage to local environment and economic development,and even endanger people’s lives.By evaluating the safety of tailings pond reasonably,the safety accident of tailings pond can be avoided effectively,so as to ensure the normal safety production of mining enterprises.The evaluation of tailings ponds is characterized by uncertainty,complexity and variability,and there are many indexes factors affecting the safety of tailings ponds.The information conveyed by most of the influencing factors is of significant uncertainty and randomness,which makes the safety evaluation of tailings ponds a complex and changeable problem filled with many uncertain factors.Aiming at the problem of uncertainty in safety evaluation of tailings pond,the theory of unascertained measure was introduced to analyze the relationship between the evaluation object and the evaluation indexes.Taking the Huangjindong tailings pond as an example,by selecting 18 influencing factors,a comprehensive safety index evaluation system of tailings pond containing 5 types of influencing factors and 18 influencing factors was established.The comprehensive weight of indexes was determined by combining the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-entropy weight method,and an unascertained measure model based on the improved entropy weight method was constructed.By quantifying qualitative factors,this model eliminates the differences among factors,improves the problem that the subjective and objective weights have small differences and cause the evaluation results to change greatly,and weakens the influence of weight values on the evaluation results.At the same time,the index measure function is determined according to the index evaluation system and classification mode of the model,and the measured value of each index is substituted into it to obtain the comprehensive measure vector of multiple indexes,and the safety level of tailings pond and the importance of unascertained measure of each index are accurately determined by the confidence recognition criterion.Results show that the security level of Huangjindong gold tailings is Ⅱ level,means the tailings is in a safe state.By comparing,the importance level of indicator measure from high to low is foundation subsidence(B3),flood top(B1),safety management(B4),dam break(B2),natural factor(B5).That means foundation subsidence has the greatest impact on the safety of tailing pond,it is necessary to strengthen management of ground subsidence.The evaluation results based on the improved entropy weight method-unascertained measure model are consistent with the actual results,which provides a feasible method for the safety evaluation of tailings pond.

Key words: tailing pond, improved entropy method, unascertained measure, safety evaluation, confidence recognition criterion, measure function

中图分类号: 

  • X936

图1

尾矿库安全评价计算流程图"

图2

尾矿库安全评价体系"

表2

安全等级的划分"

安全等级分数安全状态安全等级分数安全状态
Ⅰ级75~100安全Ⅲ级25~50较不安全
Ⅱ级50~75较安全Ⅳ级0~25不安全

表3

各指标权重系数"

影响指标AHP法权重系数熵权法权重系数组合权重
C110.06110.20290.1490
C120.02330.05790.0448
C130.01330.07120.0492
C210.02160.09640.0680
C220.04940.00420.0214
C230.11300.00750.0476
C310.06030.01710.0335
C320.09320.05560.0699
C330.01640.09240.0635
C340.04380.25520.1749
C350.03450.03190.0329
C360.02660.02490.0255
C410.17010.00680.0689
C420.07430.02330.0427
C430.06490.00850.0299
C510.04170.01320.0240
C520.06620.02420.0402
C530.02630.00680.0141

表4

定量指标分级"

指标Ⅰ级(安全)Ⅱ级(较安全)Ⅲ级(较不安全)Ⅳ级(不安全)
坝体高度/m<3030~6060~100>100
库容量/(×104 m3<100100~500500~1 000>1 000
日最大降雨量/mm<5050~7070~90>90
坝体位移坡比<0.40.4~0.60.6~0.8>0.8
最小干滩长度/m>10070~10040~70<40
裂隙度/%<1010~2020~30>30
地下水状态/(L·10 m·min-1<3030~6060~100>100
地下空区<1.01.0~1.21.2~2.0>2.0
渗透系数/(m·昼夜-1<0.010.01~1.001~10>10
抗震系数>0.70.5~0.70.3~0.5<0.3
泄洪系数<0.30.3~0.50.5~0.7>0.7
尾矿堆存容量/(t·m-3>1.50.8~1.50.1~0.8<0.1

表5

定性指标分级"

指标Ⅰ级(安全)Ⅱ级(较安全)Ⅲ级(较不安全)Ⅳ级(不安全)
管理制度建立健全尾矿库安全管理制度尾矿库安全管理制度比较健全尾矿库安全管理制度不够健全没有建立尾矿库安全管理制度
紧急预案紧急预案完善紧急预案较完善紧急预案不完善没有紧急预案
安全监测安全监测严格安全监测较严格安全监测不到位没有安全监测
地震没有发生地震有地震,强度轻微地震强度较强烈地震强度强烈
白蚁没有白蚁较少白蚁白蚁较多出现白蚁群

表6

单向指标评价的得分值"

单向评价指标得分单向评价指标得分
坝体高度C1145.25抗震系数C3460.25
库容量C1278.50泄洪系数C3582.50
日最大降雨量C1374.00尾矿堆存容量C3683.50
坝体位移坡比C2147.50管理制度C4181.00
最小干滩长度C2277.55紧急预案C4284.25
裂隙度C2378.75安全监测C4384.75
地下水状态C3183.00地震C5184.00
地下空区C3262.50白蚁C5279.50
渗透系数C3383.75其他影响因素C5382.25

图3

未确知测度函数"

表7

影响因素的未确知测度重要度"

准则层C1C2C3C4重要度排序
B100.0670.0910.0852
B200.0600.0430.0344
B30.0350.1210.2130.0321
B40.0240.117003
B50.0090.0660.00405

表8

不同模型安全等级的比较"

评价模型安全等级安全状态
熵权法—未确知测度模型Ⅱ级较安全
变权综合权重Ⅱ级较安全
模糊多元联系度Ⅱ级较安全
Chaurasia R C,Nikkam S,2016.A suitable process for clean coal recovery from tailing pond deposits[J].Energy Sources Part A—Recovery Utilization and Environmental Effects,38(23):3435-3439.
Chen Xiangping,2018.Spectral HS projection algorithm for solving nonlinear monotone equations[J].Operations Research Transactions,22(3):15-27.
Deng Hongwei,Hu Pulun,Yang Niange,al et,2012.Mining method choice based on empowerment combination TOPSIS[J].Journal of Guangxi University(Natural Science Edition),37(5):990-996.
Gao Wei,Zhang Qingpu,Xiaobiao Dun,al et,2016.Comprehensive assessment of advanced military aerospace technologies based on improved EAHP and dynamic weighting[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,38(1):102-109.
Guo Jinwei,Pu Xuqiang,Gao Xiang,al et,2014.Improved method on weights determination of indexes in multi-objective decision[J].Journal of Xidian University,41(6):118-125.
Jiang Zhou,Huang Yanhua,Liu Fangqiu,al et,2016.Safety evaluation of tailings dams based on extension theory[J].Environmental Engineering,34(7):165-170.
Khademi H,Abbaspour A,Martinez S, al et,2018.Provenance and environmental risk of windblown materials from mine tailing ponds,Murcia,Spain[J].Environmental Pollution,241:432-440.
Li Fengjuan,Zhang Guang,Liu Mingze,al et,2019.Risk assessment of gold cave tailings reservoir based on variable weight synthesizing weights[J].China Mining Magazine,28(1):115-121.
Liang Li,Liu Qi,Li Ming,2017.Dam-break risk assessment model of tailings reservoir based on variable weight synthesis and analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Northeastern University (Nature Science),38(12):1790-1794.
Rao Yunzhang,Hou Yunbing,Pan Jianping,al et,2003.Study on neural network prediction of wastewater of tailings reservoir of a copper-iron mine[J].Metal Mine,(11):49-51,63.
Tan Qinwen,Xin Baoquan,Wan Lu,al et,2018.Risk evaluation indexes and gradation method of major hazard installations for tailings pond[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,14(7):99-106.
Wang Shi,Shi Yong,Wang Wanyin,2019.Comprehensive safety evaluation of tailings reservoir based on fuzzy multivariate contact model[J].Gold Science and Technology,27(6):903-911.
Wang Ximei,Chen Jianhong,Yang Shan,2018.Study on uncertainty in safety evaluation of tailing ponds based on granular computing[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,14(1):42-48.
Wang Xinmin,Wang Shi,Yan Debo,al et,2012.Risk assessment on blocking of filling pipeline based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,22(4):151-156.
Wang Xuan,Wang Yabian,Liu Lichen,al et,2019.Analysis on environmental safety status and discussion on reasonable closure measures for tailings reservoir in Longnan City[J].Gold Science and Technology,27(1):144-152.
Wang Yingbo,Wang Lin,Li Zhongxue,2012.Safety evaluation of mine tailings facilities based on HS-BP algorithm[J].Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice,32(11):2585-2590.
Wu Deming,Yang Shan,Wang Ximei,2018.An improved evaluation method for safety harmony equation of tailing ponds[J].Gold Science and Technology,26(5):662-668.
Xu Zhenkai,Liu Xuan,Wei Bowen,al et,2016.Tailings dam risk fuzzy evaluation model based on the cloud model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,14(6):122-127.
Yang Yuping,Deng Xingxing,Feng Yan,2014.Optimization of mining method based on uncertainty measurement theory and AHP[J].Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology),45(11):3936-3942.
Yu Guangming,Song Chuanwang,Pan Yongzhan,al et,2014.Review of new progress in tailing dam safety in foreign research and current state with development trent in China[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,33(Supp.1):3238-3248.
陈香萍,2018.谱HS投影算法求解非线性单调方程组[J].运筹学学报,22(3):15-27.
邓红卫,胡普仑,杨念哥,等,2012.基于组合赋权TOPSIS的采矿方法优选[J].广西大学学报(自然科学版),37(5):990-996.
高炜,张庆普,敦晓彪,等,2016.基于改进的可拓层次分析法和动态加权的航天高技术综合评价研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,38(1):102-109.
郭金维,蒲绪强,高祥,等,2014.一种改进的多目标决策指标权重计算方法[J].西安电子科技大学学报,41(6):118-125.
姜洲,黄艳华,刘方求,等,2016.基于可拓学的尾矿库安全评价[J].环境工程,34(7):165-170.
李凤娟,章光,刘明泽,等,2019.基于变权综合权重的黄金洞尾矿库风险评价[J].中国矿业,28(1):115-121.
梁力,刘奇,李明,2017.基于变权综合层次分析法的尾矿库溃坝风险模型[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),38(12):1790-1794.
饶运章,侯运炳,潘建平,等,2003.某铜铁矿尾矿库废水神经网络预测研究[J].金属矿山,(11):49-51,63.
谭钦文,辛保泉,万露,等,2018.尾矿库重大危险源风险评价指标及分级方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,14(7):99-106.
王石,石勇,王万银,2019.基于模糊多元联系度模型的尾矿库综合安全评价[J].黄金科学技术,27(6):903-911.
王喜梅,陈建宏,杨珊,2018.基于粒计算的尾矿库安全评价不确定性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,14(1):42-48.
王新民,王石,鄢德波,等,2012.基于未确知测度理论的充填管道堵塞风险性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,22(4):151-156.
王旋,王亚变,刘理臣,等,2019.陇南市尾矿库环境安全现状分析及合理闭库措施探讨[J].黄金科学技术,27(1):144-152.
王英博,王琳,李仲学,2012.基于HS-BP算法的尾矿库安全评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,32(11):2585-2590.
吴德明,杨珊,王喜梅,2018.一种改进的尾矿库安全和谐度方程评价方法[J].黄金科学技术,26(5):662-668.
徐镇凯,刘璇,魏博文,等,2016.基于云模型的尾矿库溃坝风险模糊评价模型[J].南水北调与水利科技,14(6):122-127.
阳雨平,邓星星,冯岩,2014.基于未确知测度与层次分析法的采矿方法优选[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),45(11):3936-3942.
于广明,宋传旺,潘永战,等,2014.尾矿坝安全研究的国外新进展及我国的现状和发展态势[J].岩石力学与工程学报,33(增1):3238-3248.
[1] 高振兴, 郭进平. 基于熵值法—突变理论的尾矿库安全评价研究[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2020, 28(3): 450-456.
[2] 王石,石勇,王万银. 基于模糊多元联系度模型的尾矿库综合安全评价[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2019, 27(6): 903-911.
[3] 代转,罗周全,秦亚光,文磊,丁春胜,董喆喆. 地下金属矿山广义安全管理模型构建及评价[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2019, 27(6): 920-930.
[4] 王旋,王亚变,刘理臣,曹兴,赵立芳,张兆虎. 陇南市尾矿库环境安全现状分析及合理闭库措施探讨[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2019, 27(1): 144-152.
[5] 胡建华,高晨,杨春. 重叠矿段采动下的工程响应仿真与评价[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2018, 26(6): 736-743.
[6] 吴德明,杨珊,王喜梅. 一种改进的尾矿库安全和谐度方程评价方法[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2018, 26(5): 662-668.
[7] 赵立芳,刘佳,张兆虎,王旋,姚莉卫,赵转军. 甘肃省尾矿库环境风险分析及防范措施[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2018, 26(5): 656-661.
[8] 赵彬,李小贝,戴兴国,王新民,张德明. 基于变权重理论的边坡稳定性未确知分析[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2016, 24(6): 90-95.
[9] 陈建宏,宋灿,邬书良,李迁威. 改进未确知测度理论的隧道塌方风险评估及控制[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2016, 24(6): 64-71.
[10] 袁晓,王李管*,刘晓明,彭平安. 基于改进未确知测度理论的矿床开采方式优选[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2015, 23(5): 72-76.
[11] 陈建宏,朱鼎耀,陈轶俊,叶阿明,邱文. 基于PCA-BP神经网络的尾矿库坝体稳定性分析[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2015, 23(5): 47-52.
[12] 尹土兵,王品,张鸣鲁. 基于AHP及模糊综合评判的地下金属矿山安全分析与评价[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2015, 23(3): 60-66.
[13] 陈建宏,曾闵,李涛,江时雨. 基于物元分析—未确知测度理论的地下矿山安全避险“六大系统”可靠性评估方法[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2015, 23(1): 80-84.
[14] 迟继松,郭伟,王月伟,邢莹莹. 山东蓬莱矿业选矿厂尾矿堆放及排水方式探讨[J]. J4, 2011, 19(6): 72-74.
[15] 杨守斌,于小翠,谢敏雄. 新立尾矿库综合治理措施及其实施效果[J]. J4, 2010, 18(6): 78-79.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!