黄金科学技术 ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 155-163.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2021.01.115
Yong SHI(),Xiuzhi SHI(),Wenzhi DING
摘要:
针对尾矿库安全评价中存在的不确定性问题,以黄金洞尾矿库为例,引入未确知测度理论,分析评价对象与评价指标之间的关系,建立一个包含5个影响因素和18个影响因子的尾矿库综合安全指标评价体系,结合基于层次分析法—熵权法综合确定指标权重,构建基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型。根据该模型的指标评价体系和分级模式确定指标测度函数,代入各指标实测值,得出多指标综合测度向量,并借助置信度识别准则准确判定尾矿库安全等级和各指标未确知测度重要度。结果表明:黄金洞尾矿库安全等级为Ⅱ级,尾矿库处于较安全状态。经比较,指标测度重要度从大到小为地基沉陷(B3)>洪水漫顶(B1)>安全管理(B4)>坝体溃坝(B2)>自然因素(B5),可知地基沉陷对尾矿库安全影响程度最大,应加强对地基沉陷的管理。基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型得到的评价结果与实际结果相吻合,为尾矿库安全性评价提供了一种可行的方法。
中图分类号:
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