基于改进熵权法—未确知测度模型的黄金洞尾矿库综合安全评价

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2021.01.115

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years，the state has strict requirements on the safety production of mining enterprises.The safety problem has become one of the most important problems of each mining enterprise.Tailings pond is an indispensable part in the production process of mining enterprises，so the safety of tailing pond is closely connected with the local development.The dam break of tailing pond will cause great loss and serious damage to local environment and economic development，and even endanger people’s lives.By evaluating the safety of tailings pond reasonably，the safety accident of tailings pond can be avoided effectively，so as to ensure the normal safety production of mining enterprises.The evaluation of tailings ponds is characterized by uncertainty，complexity and variability，and there are many indexes factors affecting the safety of tailings ponds.The information conveyed by most of the influencing factors is of significant uncertainty and randomness，which makes the safety evaluation of tailings ponds a complex and changeable problem filled with many uncertain factors.Aiming at the problem of uncertainty in safety evaluation of tailings pond，the theory of unascertained measure was introduced to analyze the relationship between the evaluation object and the evaluation indexes.Taking the Huangjindong tailings pond as an example，by selecting 18 influencing factors，a comprehensive safety index evaluation system of tailings pond containing 5 types of influencing factors and 18 influencing factors was established.The comprehensive weight of indexes was determined by combining the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）-entropy weight method，and an unascertained measure model based on the improved entropy weight method was constructed.By quantifying qualitative factors，this model eliminates the differences among factors，improves the problem that the subjective and objective weights have small differences and cause the evaluation results to change greatly，and weakens the influence of weight values on the evaluation results.At the same time，the index measure function is determined according to the index evaluation system and classification mode of the model，and the measured value of each index is substituted into it to obtain the comprehensive measure vector of multiple indexes，and the safety level of tailings pond and the importance of unascertained measure of each index are accurately determined by the confidence recognition criterion.Results show that the security level of Huangjindong gold tailings is Ⅱ level，means the tailings is in a safe state.By comparing，the importance level of indicator measure from high to low is foundation subsidence（B₃），flood top（B₁），safety management（B₄），dam break（B₂），natural factor（B₅）.That means foundation subsidence has the greatest impact on the safety of tailing pond，it is necessary to strengthen management of ground subsidence.The evaluation results based on the improved entropy weight method-unascertained measure model are consistent with the actual results，which provides a feasible method for the safety evaluation of tailings pond.

Key words: tailing pond, improved entropy method, unascertained measure, safety evaluation, confidence recognition criterion, measure function

CLC Number:

X936

Yong SHI,Xiuzhi SHI,Wenzhi DING. Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Huangjindong Tailing Pond Based on Improved Entropy Weight Method-Unascertained Measure Model[J].Gold Science and Technology, 2021, 29(1): 155-163.

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安全等级	分数	安全状态	安全等级	分数	安全状态
Ⅰ级	75~100	安全	Ⅲ级	25~50	较不安全
Ⅱ级	50~75	较安全	Ⅳ级	0~25	不安全

影响指标	AHP法权重系数	熵权法权重系数	组合权重
C₁₁	0.0611	0.2029	0.1490
C₁₂	0.0233	0.0579	0.0448
C₁₃	0.0133	0.0712	0.0492
C₂₁	0.0216	0.0964	0.0680
C₂₂	0.0494	0.0042	0.0214
C₂₃	0.1130	0.0075	0.0476
C₃₁	0.0603	0.0171	0.0335
C₃₂	0.0932	0.0556	0.0699
C₃₃	0.0164	0.0924	0.0635
C₃₄	0.0438	0.2552	0.1749
C₃₅	0.0345	0.0319	0.0329
C₃₆	0.0266	0.0249	0.0255
C₄₁	0.1701	0.0068	0.0689
C₄₂	0.0743	0.0233	0.0427
C₄₃	0.0649	0.0085	0.0299
C₅₁	0.0417	0.0132	0.0240
C₅₂	0.0662	0.0242	0.0402
C₅₃	0.0263	0.0068	0.0141

指标	Ⅰ级（安全）	Ⅱ级（较安全）	Ⅲ级（较不安全）	Ⅳ级（不安全）
坝体高度/m	<30	30~60	60~100	>100
库容量/（×10⁴m³）	<100	100~500	500~1 000	>1 000
日最大降雨量/mm	<50	50~70	70~90	>90
坝体位移坡比	<0.4	0.4~0.6	0.6~0.8	>0.8
最小干滩长度/m	>100	70~100	40~70	<40
裂隙度/%	<10	10~20	20~30	>30
地下水状态/（L·10 m·min^-1）	<30	30~60	60~100	>100
地下空区	<1.0	1.0~1.2	1.2~2.0	>2.0
渗透系数/（m·昼夜^-1）	<0.01	0.01~1.00	1~10	>10
抗震系数	>0.7	0.5~0.7	0.3~0.5	<0.3
泄洪系数	<0.3	0.3~0.5	0.5~0.7	>0.7
尾矿堆存容量/（t·m^-3）	>1.5	0.8~1.5	0.1~0.8	<0.1

指标	Ⅰ级（安全）	Ⅱ级（较安全）	Ⅲ级（较不安全）	Ⅳ级（不安全）
管理制度	建立健全尾矿库安全管理制度	尾矿库安全管理制度比较健全	尾矿库安全管理制度不够健全	没有建立尾矿库安全管理制度
紧急预案	紧急预案完善	紧急预案较完善	紧急预案不完善	没有紧急预案
安全监测	安全监测严格	安全监测较严格	安全监测不到位	没有安全监测
地震	没有发生地震	有地震，强度轻微	地震强度较强烈	地震强度强烈
白蚁	没有白蚁	较少白蚁	白蚁较多	出现白蚁群

单向评价指标	得分	单向评价指标	得分
坝体高度C₁₁	45.25	抗震系数C₃₄	60.25
库容量C₁₂	78.50	泄洪系数C₃₅	82.50
日最大降雨量C₁₃	74.00	尾矿堆存容量C₃₆	83.50
坝体位移坡比C₂₁	47.50	管理制度C₄₁	81.00
最小干滩长度C₂₂	77.55	紧急预案C₄₂	84.25
裂隙度C₂₃	78.75	安全监测C₄₃	84.75
地下水状态C₃₁	83.00	地震C₅₁	84.00
地下空区C₃₂	62.50	白蚁C₅₂	79.50
渗透系数C₃₃	83.75	其他影响因素C₅₃	82.25

Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Huangjindong Tailing Pond Based on Improved Entropy Weight Method-Unascertained Measure Model

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准则层	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	重要度排序
B₁	0	0.067	0.091	0.085	2
B₂	0	0.060	0.043	0.034	4
B₃	0.035	0.121	0.213	0.032	1
B₄	0.024	0.117	0	0	3
B₅	0.009	0.066	0.004	0	5

评价模型	安全等级	安全状态
熵权法—未确知测度模型	Ⅱ级	较安全
变权综合权重	Ⅱ级	较安全
模糊多元联系度	Ⅱ级	较安全

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