基于熵值法—突变理论的尾矿库安全评价研究

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2020.03.197

Abstract

Abstract:

Tailings pond is a man-made source of dangerous debris flow with high potential energy，which threatens the safety of downstream residents and facilities.In recent years，tailings pond accidents have occurred frequently，causing extremely casualties, environmental pollution and bad social impact.In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents，the actual safety of the tailings pond must be scientifically evaluated.Aiming at the problems that complex causes of tailings dam accidents，many influencing factors of safety conditions，and difficulty in determining the proportion of each evaluation index in the whole system，this paper proposes a tailings dam safety evaluation method combining entropy method and catastrophe theory.Based on the “Four Factors”（people，things，management，environment） theory of safety management in system engineering，the safety status of the tailing pond is affected from the aspects of personnel status（A），the status of tailing pond itself （B），safety management（C） and environmental impact factors （D）were decomposed，and an index system of 3 layers and 11 underlying indicators was established.When in use，firstly，entropy method is used to sort the importance of evaluation indexes，and then catastrophe theory is used to calculate to obtain the catastrophe grade value of tailing pond，and finally the comprehensive safety grade of tailing pond is obtained.The method was applied to a engineering project，and the case studies show that the relative importance ranking results of the underlying indicators are：｛A₂，A₃，A₁｝，｛B₁，B₃，B₂｝，｛C₃，C₁，C₂｝，｛D₁，D₂｝.The relative importance ranking results of the middle indicators are：｛B，C，A，D｝.Then use the normal formula to calculate the total mutation level value is 0.9641，the mutation membership function value is 0.86，means the security level belongs to a safer level.This result is consistent with the results obtained by the expert group，and is in line with the basic situation of the tailings pond.The safety evaluation method based on entropy method-catastrophe theory can be adapted to the safety evaluation of tailings pond.

Key words: tailing pond, safety, entropy method, catastrophe theory, comprehensive evaluation, index system

CLC Number:

X936

Zhenxing GAO, Jinping GUO. Research on Safety Evaluation of Tailings Pond Based on Entropy Method-Catastrophe Theory[J].Gold Science and Technology, 2020, 28(3): 450-456.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig.1

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Normalization results of three-level indexes"

影响因素	突变模型	三级指标归一化
人员状况（A）	燕尾突变	$t A 2 = 0.68 = 0.8246; t A 3 = 0.83 3 = 0.9398; t A 1 = 0.76 4 = 0.9337$
尾矿库本身状况（B）	燕尾突变	$t B 1 = 0.92 = 0.9592; t B 3 = 0.81 3 = 0.9322; t B 2 = 0.76 4 = 0.9337$
安全管理（C）	燕尾突变	$t C 3 = 0.70 = 0.8367; t C 1 = 0.80 3 = 0.9283; t C 2 = 0.75 4 = 0.9306$
环境影响（D）	尖点突变	$t D 1 = 0.80 = 0.8944; t D 2 = 0.75 3 = 0.9086$

Table 3

Table 4

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分值	安全等级	分值	安全等级
（0.9，1.0）	安全	(0.6,0.7)	较危险
（0.8，0.9）	较安全	(0,0.6)	危险
（0.7，0.8）	一般

指标编号	指标熵值	指标差异系数	指标权重
A₁	0.9945	0.0055	0.0830
A₂	0.9936	0.0064	0.0965
A₃	0.9944	0.0056	0.0845
B₁	0.9923	0.0077	0.1161
B₂	0.9945	0.0055	0.0830
B₃	0.9938	0.0062	0.0935
C₁	0.9939	0.0061	0.0920
C₂	0.9945	0.0055	0.0830
C₃	0.9938	0.0062	0.0935
D₁	0.9939	0.0061	0.0920
D₂	0.9945	0.0055	0.0830

综合评价值	突变级数值	综合评价值	突变级数值
1.00	1.0000	0.70	0.9516
0.90	0.9854	0.68	0.9478
0.85	0.9776	0.67	0.9458
0.80	0.9693	0.65	0.9416
0.76	0.9624	0.60	0.9316
0.75	0.9607	0.50	0.9078
0.72	0.9553	0	0

Research on Safety Evaluation of Tailings Pond Based on Entropy Method-Catastrophe Theory

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