基于模糊多元联系度模型的尾矿库综合安全评价

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.06.903

Abstract

Abstract:

Tailings reservoir is an important facility to store tailings, and it is a dangerous source with high potential energy, there is a risk of dam break.Once the tailings reservoir is crashed, it will seriously affect the safety of people’s lives and property and destroy the local ecological environment, so it is of great significance to evaluate and predict the safety of tailings reservoir. For the tailings pond is a nonlinear complex system, there are many uncertain factors in the process of safety evaluation and prediction of tailing pond, and the factors are interrelated and coupled, so the safety evaluation of tailing pond has uncertainty.In order to accurately evaluate the safety level of the tailings pond，the Huangjindong tailings reservoir was used as a sample，and the relationship between various factors in the safety of the tailings pond was analyzed.Comprehensive application of fuzzy multi-connection theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)，a comprehensive safety assessment model for tailings pond with five influencing factors and 26 influencing factors was constructed.The weighting coefficient of each subjective and objective index was obtained by AHP，and the evaluation index was graded. In order to quantify some qualitative factors，the fuzzy multi-connection degree theory was introduced to identify the uncertain factors affecting the safety of the tailings pond.The combination of certainty and uncertainty was considered to deal with the comprehensive integration problem, and the measured values of quantitative indicators of membership function were constructed.The results show that the comprehensive safety evaluation score of the Huangjindong tailings pond is 80.052，and its safety grade of the golden hole tailings pond is Ⅱ，and the tailings pond was in a relatively stable state.By calculating the degree of contact between the first-level indicators，the degree of opposition c is 0.0615，the degree of identity a is 0.5633，a>c，set pair potential is the same potential，and the investment and management of safe production should be strengthened.Using the five-element relationship function to calculate the uncertainty of five influencing factors，through calculation，safety management（B₁），tailings dam（B₂），tailings discharge（B₃），flood discharge system （B₄） and tailings transport and return water（B₅），the uncertainty of the five indicators is 0.4013，0.4240，0.5132，0.0148 and 0.2644. By comparing the size of the uncertainty factor，tailings discharge（B₃）>tailings dam（B₂）>safety management（B₁）tailings transport and return water（B₅）>flood discharge system（B₄）.In the end，tailings discharge is the most uncertain factor，and it is necessary to strengthen the management of tailings discharge.The evaluation results obtained by the model are consistent with the actual results，which provided a feasible method for the safety evaluation of the tailings pond.

Key words: tailings pond, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, safety assessment, set pair analysis, multivariate contact

CLC Number:

X936

Shi WANG,Yong SHI,Wanyin WANG. Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Tailings Reservoir Based on Fuzzy Multivariate Contact Model[J].Gold Science and Technology, 2019, 27(6): 903-911.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Table 2

Relationship between set and potential"

名称	a、b、c的关系	集对势
反势	b₁+b₂+b₃ $<$ a	强反势
反势	a $<$ b₁+b₂+b₃ $<$ c	弱反势
同势	b₁+b₂+b₃ $<$ c	强同势
同势	c $<$ b₁+b₂+b₃ $<$ a	弱同势
均势	b₁+b₂+b₃ $<$ a	强均势
均势	b₁+b₂+b₃=a	弱均势

Table 2

Fig.1

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Secondary indicator connection"

二级指标	联系度	不确定性b
B₁	$μ 1 = 0.5916 + 0.2381 i 1 + 0.1374 i 2 + 0.0258 i 3 + 0.0071 j$	0.4013
B₂	$μ 2 = 0.2528 + 0.1523 i 1 + 0.1205 i 2 + 0.1512 i 3 + 0.3232 j$	0.4240
B₃	$μ 3 = 0.4340 + 0.2780 i 1 + 0.1528 i 2 + 0.0824 i 3 + 0.0528 j$	0.5132
B₄	$μ 4 = 0.9733 + 0.0059 i 1 + 0.0030 i 2 + 0.0059 i 3 + 0.0119 j$	0.0148
B₅	$μ 5 = 0.7240 + 0.1580 i 1 + 0.0748 i 2 + 0.0316 i 3 + 0.0116 j$	0.2644

Table 7

Table 8

References 28

1	梁力，刘奇，李明.基于变权综合层次分析法的尾矿库溃坝风险模型[J].东北大学学报（自然科学版），2017，38（12）：1790-1794.
	Liang Li，Liu Qi，Li Ming.Dam-break risk assessment model of tailings reservoir based on variable weight synthesis and analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Northeastern University（Nature Science），2017，38（12）：1790-1794.
2	Chaurasia R C， Nikkam S.A suitable process for clean coal recovery from tailing pond deposits[J].Energy Sources Part A-Recovery Utilization and Environmental Effects，2016，38（23）：3435-3439.
3	王旋，王亚变，刘理臣，等.陇南市尾矿库环境安全现状分析及合理闭库措施探讨[J].黄金科学技术，2019，27（1）：144-152.
	Wang Xuan，Wang Yabian，Liu Lichen，et al.Analysis on environmental safety status and discussion on reasonable closure measures for tailings reservoir in Longnan City[J].Gold Science and Technology，2019，27 （1）：144-152.
4	Khademi H，Abbaspour A，Martínez-Martínez S，et al.Provenance and environmental risk of windblown materials from mine tailing ponds，Murcia，Spain[J].Environmental Pollution，2018，241：432-440.
5	于广明，宋传旺，潘永战，等.尾矿坝安全研究的国外新进展及我国的现状和发展态势[J].岩石力学与工程学报，2014，33（增1）：3238-3248.
	Yu Guangming，Song Chuanwang，Pan Yongzhan，et al.Review of new progress in tailing dam safety in foreign research and current state with development trent in China[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2014，33（Supp.1）：3238-3248.
6	曾佳龙，黄锐，关燕鹤，等.熵权—未确知测度理论在尾矿库安全标准化中的应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术，2014，10（2）：160-166.
	Zeng Jialong，Huang Rui，Guan Yanhe，et al.Research on application of entropy-unascertained measure theory in tailing pond safety standardization[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2014，10（2）：160-166.
7	秦晨，陈晓方，杨玉婷，等.基于FAHP-IE算法的尾矿库安全性三级评估研究及应用[J].控制工程，2014，21（6）：995-1000.
	Qin Chen，Chen Xiaofang，Yang Yuting，et al.Research on safety three-level evaluation of tailings reservoir based on FAHP-IE method[J].Control Engineering of China，2014，21（6）：995-1000.
8	刘志祥，孙晶晶，唐志祥.滨海金属矿床海水涌入危险性等级评价模型及应用[J].矿冶工程，2015，35（1）：6-9，13.
	Liu Zhixiang，Sun Jingjing，Tang Zhixiang.A risk rating model for seawater inrush in coastal metal deposits and its engineering application[J].Mining and Metallurgical Engineering，2015，35（1）：6-9，13.
9	廖文景，皇甫凯龙，何易，等.尾矿库实时监控与安全分析及预警耦合系统[J].中国安全科学学报，2014，24（8）：158-163.
	Liao Wenjing，Huangfu Kailong，He Yi，et al.Integrated real-time monitoring，analyzing and analyzing pre-warning system for tailings reservoir[J].China Safety Science Journal，2014，24（8）：158-163.
10	Baek N，Yoo K H.Emulating OpenGL ES 2.0 over the desktop OpenGL[J].Cluster Computing，2015，18（1）：165-175.
11	Li B，Zhang F，Zhang L W，et al.Comprehensive suitability evaluation of tea crops using GIS and a modified land ecological suitability evaluation model[J].Pedosphere，2012，22（1）：122-130.
12	王醒，马斌，纪琨.基于模糊综合评价的尾矿库安全评价研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报，2015，13（3）：125-129，167.
	Wang Xing，Ma Bin，Ji Kun.Safety evaluation of tailing ponds based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering，2015，13（3）：125-129，167.
13	王英博，王琳，李仲学.基于HS-BP算法的尾矿库安全评价[J].系统工程理论与实践，2012，32（11）：2585-2590.
	Wang Yingbo，Wang Lin，Li Zhongxue.Safety evaluation of mine tailings facilities based on HS-BP algorithm[J].Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice，2012，32（11）：2585-2590.
14	陈建宏，朱鼎耀，陈轶俊，等.基于PCA-BP神经网络的尾矿库坝体稳定性分析[J].黄金科学技术，2015，23（5）：47-52.
	Chen Jianhong，Zhu Dingyao，Chen Yijun，et al.Analysis of stability for mine tailings dam based on PCA-BP neural network[J].Gold Science and Technology，2015，23（5）：47-52.
15	陈香萍.谱HS投影算法求解非线性单调方程组[J].运筹学学报，2018，22（3）：15-27.
	Chen Xiangping.Spectral HS projection algorithm for solving nonlinear monotone equations[J].Operations Research Transactions，2018，22（3）：15-27.
16	姜洲，黄艳华，刘方求，等.基于可拓学的尾矿库安全评价[J].环境工程，2016，34（7）：165-170.
	Jiang Zhou，Huang Yanhua，Liu Fangqiu，et al.Safety evaluation of tailings dams based on extension theory[J].Environmental Engineering，2016，34（7）：165-170.
17	郭金维，蒲绪强，高祥，等.一种改进的多目标决策指标权重计算方法[J].西安电子科技大学学报，2014，41（6）：118-125.
	Guo Jinwei，Pu Xuqiang，Gao Xiang，et al.Improved method on weights determination of indexes in multi-objective decision[J].Journal of Xidian University，2014，41（6）：118-125.
18	高炜，张庆普，敦晓彪，等.基于改进的可拓层次分析法和动态加权的航天高技术综合评价研究[J].系统工程与电子技术，2016，38（1）：102-109.
	Gao Wei，Zhang Qingpu，Xiaobiao Dun，et al.Comprehensive assessment of advanced military aerospace technologies based on improved EAHP and dynamic weighting[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics，2016，38（1）：102-109.
19	王喜梅，陈建宏，杨珊.基于粒计算的尾矿库安全评价不确定性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术，2018，14（1）：42-48.
	Wang Ximei，Chen Jianhong，Yang Shan.Study on uncertainty in safety evaluation of tailing ponds based on granular computing[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2018，14（1）：42-48.
20	何美丽，刘浪，王宏伟，等.基于集对分析的工程评标未知权重多属性决策[J].中南大学学报（自然科学版），2012，43（10）：4057-4062.
	He Meili，Liu Lang，Wang Hongwei，et al.Unknown weight multiple attribute decision for engineering appraisal bidding based on set pair analysis[J].Journal of Central South University（Science and Technology），2012，43（10）：4057-4062.
21	杨泽，周科平，康海岳，等.SPA和模糊数学在尾矿库安全评价中的应用研究[J].环境工程，2016，34（1）：108-111，140.
	Yang Ze，Zhou Keping，Kang Haiyue，et al.Research on application of SPA and fuzzy mathematics in safety evaluation of tailings reservoir[J].Environmental Engineering，2016，34（1）：108-111，140.
22	刘栋，史秀志，张舒，等.基于集对分析的非煤矿山紧急避险能力评价[J].安全与环境学报，2014，14（2）：85-89.
	Liu Dong，Shi Xiuzhi，Zhang Shu，et al.Evaluation of non-coal mine mountain emergency risk avoidance capability based on set pair analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment，2014，14（2）：85-89.
23	杨凯，吕淑然，张媛媛.基于模糊层次分析法的某尾矿库风险综合评价[J].工业建筑，2014，44（增1）：825-829.
	Yang Kai，Shuran Lü，Zhang Yuanyuan.Synthesized assesssment method for tailings reservoir risk based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Industrial Construction，2014，44（Supp.1）：825-829.
24	徐宏杰，宫博，李德顺.基于集对分析法的煤矿危险性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术，2012，8（6）：86-90.
	Xu Hongjie，Gong Bo，Li Deshun.Risk assessment of coal mine based on set pair analysis[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2012，8（6）：86-90.
25	顾成喜.一种改进的四元联系度中集对势排序方法[J].数学的实践与认识，2012，42（2）：36-42.
	Gu Chengxi.An improved method for ranking the potential of the quaternary contact degree[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory，2012，42（2）：36-42.
26	王训洪，顾晓薇，胥孝川，等.基于GA-AHP和云物元模型的尾矿库溃坝风险评估[J].东北大学学报（自然科学版），2017，38（10）：1464-1467.
	Wang Xunhong，Gu Xiaowei，Xu Xiaochuan，et al.Risk evaluation of break-dam in mine tailings pond based on GA-AHP and cloud-matter element model[J].Journal of Northeastern University（Natural Science），2017，38（10）：1464-1467.
27	李凤娟，章光，刘明泽，等.基于AHP-TOPSIS模型的湖南黄金洞尾矿库系统安全综合评价[J].有色金属（矿山部分），2018，70（3）：70-76.
	Li Fengjuan，Zhang Guang，Liu Mingze，et al.Based on AHP-TOPSIS model for evaluating Hunan gold cave tailings pond system[J].Nonferrous Metals（Mining Section），2018，70（3）：70-76.
28	李玉涵.尾矿库安全评价的模糊层次分析法[J].现代矿业，2017，33（5）：209-211.
	Li Yuhan.Safety evaluation of tailings reservoir based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Modern Mining，2017，33（5）：209-211.

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

Comments

Recommended 0

No Suggested Reading articles found!

阶数n	RI	阶数n	RI
1	0	5	1.12
2	0	6	1.26
3	0.52	7	1.36
4	0.89	8	1.41

安全等级	分数	安全等级	分数
Ⅰ级	90~100	Ⅳ级	45~60
Ⅱ级	75~90	Ⅴ级	0~45
Ⅲ级	60~75

级别	坝高	级别	坝高
一级	H≥200	四级	30≤H<60
二级	100≤H<200	五级	H＜<30
三级	60≤H<100

准则层	W	指标层	W_i
B₁	0.3130	C₁₁	0.4675
		C₁₂	0.1599
		C₁₃	0.2580
		C₁₄	0.0435
		C₁₅	0.0711
B₂	0.3142	C₂₁	0.0896
		C₂₂	0.2048
		C₂₃	0.5296
		C₂₄	0.0522
		C₂₅	0.1238
B₃	0.0839	C₃₁	0.3712
		C₃₂	0.3902
		C₃₃	0.0816
		C₃₄	0.1571
B₄	0.2371	C₄₁	0.4924
		C₄₂	0.2160
		C₄₃	0.1152
		C₄₄	0.0297
		C₄₅	0.0851
		C₄₆	0.0616
B₅	0.0518	C₅₁	0.4449
		C₅₂	0.0277
		C₅₃	0.2324
		C₅₄	0.1591
		C₅₅	0.0642
		C₅₆	0.0717

底层指标	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	Ⅴ级	分值
C₁₁	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	90
C₁₂	>85	>70	>55	>40	≤40	85
C₁₃	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	82
C₁₄	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	100
C₁₅	>80	>60	>40	>20	≤20	80
C₂₁	>80	>60	>40	>20	≤20	80
C₂₂	>80	>70	>60	>50	≤50	70
C₂₃	>90	>85	>80	>75	≤75	50
C₂₄	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	90
C₂₅	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	60
C₃₁	>80	>60	>40	>20	≤20	60
C₃₂	>80	>60	>40	>20	≤20	90
C₃₃	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	90
C₃₄	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	70
C₄₁	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	100
C₄₂	>80	>60	>40	>20	≤20	100
C₄₃	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	100
C₄₄	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	50
C₄₅	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	100
C₄₆	>90	>80	>70	>60	≤60	100
C₅₁	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	100
C₅₂	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	0
C₅₃	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	80
C₅₄	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	90
C₅₅	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	100
C₅₆	>90	>70	>50	>30	≤30	0

Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Tailings Reservoir Based on Fuzzy Multivariate Contact Model

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 9

References 28

Related Articles 12

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

评价模型	安全等级	安全状态
模糊多元联系度	Ⅱ级	较安全
AHP-TOPSIS	Ⅱ级	较安全
FAHP	Ⅱ级	基本安全

[1]	Ning MA,Nailian HU,Guoqing LI,Duiming GUO,Jie HOU. Evaluation of Human-Machine Effectiveness of Plateau Mine Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2019, 27(6): 871-878.
[2]	Huan LI,Junhua MING,Xiaofeng SHI. Cleaner Production Assessments of Zinc Smelting Enterprise Based on Game Theory and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2018, 26(5): 635-646.
[3]	LU Furan, CHEN Jianhong. Rockburst Prediction Method Based on AHP and Entropy Weight TOPSIS Model [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2018, 26(3): 365-371.
[4]	CHEN Yi，CHEN Jianhong. Mining Method Optimization Based on Game Theory and Relative Entropy TOPSIS [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2017, 25(6): 75-82.
[5]	DENG Gao，WANG Ximei，YANG Shan. Study of Energy Saving and Environmental Protection Strategy for Iron and Steel Enterprise Based on SWOT- FAHP [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2017, 25(6): 99-107.
[6]	DENG Gao，YANG Shan. Stability Evaluation of Goafs Based on Combined Forecasting and Variable Precision Rough Fuzzy Set [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2017, 25(3): 98-107.
[7]	WANG Xinmin，FAN Biao，ZHANG Deming，LI Shuai. Synthetic Judgement for Filling Scheme Optimization Based on AHP and TPOSIS Methods [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2016, 24(5): 1-6.
[8]	YIN Tubing，WANG Pin，ZHANG Minglu. Analysis and Evaluation of Safety in Underground Metal Mine based on AHP and Fuzzy Evaluation Method [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2015, 23(3): 60-66.
[9]	WAN Xiaoheng，WANG Xinmin，ZHU Yangya，JIANG Zhiliang，CHEN Qiusong. Optimization of the Stope Structural Parameters Based on Empowerment Combination TOPSIS [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2014, 22(5): 69-73.
[10]	CHEN Jianhong，LI Tao，JIANG Shiyu. Evaluation Method of Slope Stability Based on Dynamic Weight [J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2014, 22(4): 61-66.
[11]	YANG Shoubin,YU Xiaocui,XIE Minxiong. Comprehensive Control and Implementation Effect of Xinli Tailings Pond [J]. J4, 2010, 18(6): 78-79.
[12]	WANG Cheng, HU Guo-Hong, LIU Zhi-Xiang, LI Wei. Optimization of Mining Method in Under-sea Deposit in Sanshandao Gold Mine [J]. J4, 2009, 17(1): 46-48.