基于随机响应面法的金鸡岭岩质边坡可靠度分析及抽样方法对比

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2018.03.297

Abstract

Abstract:

The non-invasive analysis model of Jinjiling rock slope stability is established based on the finite element sliding stress method and Hermite stochastic response surface method.The influence of four typical sampling methods like uniform sampling，LHS sampling，improved LHS sampling and stratified sampling on the random response surface’s fitting accuracy，slope failure probability and statistical characteristics of safety factor are studied.The results indicate that：（1）Jinjiling rock slope’s failure probability is about 18.4%，which is dangerous and needs proper support and reinforcement measures.（2）The random response surfaces constructed by LHS sampling and improved LHS sampling have better fitting accuracy，and the sampling allocation effect is better than that of stratified sampling and uniform design sampling.（3）It is suggested that the sampling allocation of random response surface should be calculated by improved LHS sampling or LHS sampling in the process of non-intrusive random analysis of slope reliability.

Key words: Hermite stochastic response surface method, finite element sliding stress method, reliability analysis of slope stability, sampling allocation method, Monte-Carlo method, LHS sampling, failure probability, fitting accuracy

CLC Number:

TD854

SHENGJianlong, ZHAIMingyang. Reliability Analysis and Sampling Method Comparison of Jinjiling Rock Slope Based on Stochastic Response Surface Method[J].Gold Science and Technology, 2018, 26(3): 297-304.

Figures/Tables 9

抽样方法	$P f$	$C O V P f$
Monte-Carlo法	0.1843	-
均匀设计抽样	0.2461	2.387×10^-7
LHS	0.1840	1.174×10^-7
改进LHS	0.1841	1.652×10^-7
分层抽样	0.2127	1.985×10^-7

References 20

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力学参数	统计参数	粉质粘土	矽卡岩强风化岩层	分布类型
粘聚力c/kPa	均值μ	25.0	60.0	正态分布
粘聚力c/kPa	变异系数COV	0.25	0.22	正态分布
内摩擦角φ/（°）	均值μ	23.0	25.0	正态分布
内摩擦角φ/（°）	变异系数COV	0.16	0.15	正态分布
重度γ/（kN/·m^-3）	均值μ	18.8	21.5	正态分布
	变异系数COV	0.20	0.18	正态分布
弹性模量E/MPa		30.5	33 600.00	常量
泊松比（ν）		0.35	0.26	常量

失效概率	可靠度指标	性能水平	处理措施
3.0×10^-7	5	高	正常维护
3.0×10^-5	4	较好	正常交通情况下维护
0.001	3	平均安全水平以上	关闭以修复
0.006	2.5	平均安全水平以下	频繁停用以修复
0.023	2	较差	频繁较长时间停用以修复
0.07	1.5	不容乐观	集中修复
0.16	1	灾难性的	紧急行动以减轻灾害

计算点	均匀设计抽样	LHS	改进LHS	分层抽样
样本点	1	0.9996	0.9999	0.9999
其他验算点	0.9877	0.9972	0.998	0.991

Reliability Analysis and Sampling Method Comparison of Jinjiling Rock Slope Based on Stochastic Response Surface Method

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