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Gold Science and Technology ›› 2017, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (6): 52-60.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2017.06.052

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Risk Analysis of Underground Mine Production Scheduling Based on Metal Price Uncertainty

REN Zhuli 1，2，WANG Liguan 1，2   

  1. 1.School of Resources and Safety Engineering，Central South University，Changsha    410083，Hunan，China；
    2.Center of Digital Mine Research，Central South University，Changsha    410083，Hunan，China
  • Received:2016-11-12 Revised:2017-03-19 Online:2017-12-30 Published:2018-05-18

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Abstract:

For the underground metal mine production planning optimization in sublevel caving method，the mixed integer programming model was built with the function of maximizing the net present value （NPV） constraint condition of the production capacity and space order to determine the stope mining sequence.The metal price changes not only affect the planning result，but  also it is difficult to determine the risk of plan and can bring great economic losses in mining enterprises.According to the distribution of metal history price，using the geometric Brownian motion（GBM） model to predict 15 metal price trend curve，the production plan for different price trend curve was gutted by solving the mixed integer programming model，finally the more metal prices curve was predicted by using the GBM model again and analysis the net present value.Upside potential，downside risk，conditional value at risk （CVaR） and the value at risk （VaR） of different planning also was analyzed.Finally by using entropy method to determine the price of metal high yield under uncertainty and risk of small production plan.Verification by the concrete example that the method is scientific and feasible，can reduce the risk of the price when use traditional manual method to prepare production plan，realize low risk high efficiency mining resources，and has an important significance for actual production of the mine.

Key words: sublevel caving method, production scheduling, mixed integer programming, optimization, metal price, GBM, risk analysis

CLC Number: 

  • F407.1

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