Abstract:

Stability of goaf was influenced by the static and dynamic factors，and has complex failure mechanism. In order to identify the goaf hazard level effectively，an identification method（RS-CPM method） based on the catastrophe progression method and rough set for the stability classification of metal mine goaf was presented.Six factors which were tensile strength，poisson ratio，volume of underground goaf，goaf aspect ratio，burial depth and goaf group influencing index，influencing the stability of metal mine goaf were selected in this paper according to the catastrophe progression method.These six factors were divided into three levels which were denoted respectively by B1，B2，B3.Analysis index system was built by these three levels.Then the relative importance of each level index were determined according to the rough set，so these levels were ranked.These indexes were concentrated as the catastrophe theory was used.The application of analysis for mine goaf was achieved finally.26 sets of domestic typical metal mine goaf instability data were collected to train and test on the analysis model，and the calculation result shows that the output of the model agrees with the actual situation.A new thoughts for instability of metal mine goaf was provided.

Key words: mine safety, rough set, catastrophe progression method, mine goaf instability, RS-CPM method