Study on the Evolution of Global Gallium and Germanium Metal Trade Network Patterns and Supply Crisis Dissemination
Received date: 2024-03-29
Revised date: 2024-05-24
Online published: 2024-08-27
Gallium and germanium are essential strategic resources utilized in various high-tech industries.As a major supplier of these elements,China recently announced plans to implement export restrictions on gallium and germanium-related products from July 3,2023. Assessing the potential repercussions of a supply disruption at the source on a global scale holds significant practical importance.This study examines trade data for gallium and germanium spanning from 2002 to 2022,employing trade network analysis techniques to quantify trade volumes,and examines the average degree and flow direction of global trade in gallium and germanium metals, introducing the trade dependence index to further analyze the evolution of the global trade network pattern of these metals.Additionally,a cascade failure (avalanche) model is developed with established parameters r1=r2=7 to simulate the effects of export control on the supply chain in 2022,including the propagation scale,rounds,and path of supply crises originating from various sources.The research indicates that,in the context of the evolution of global trade patterns,there is an increase in both the trade volume and average degree of gallium metal and germanium.Additionally,the trade dependence between Asian countries and the United States on gallium metal and germanium has decreased,while the trade dependence index of South America on the U.S. consumer market has strengthened.Furthermore,in terms of the dissemination of network supply crises,China exhibits the largest scale of crisis dissemination and the longest duration of dissemination,followed by the United States and Germany.European countries are the predominant nations among the top ten countries in terms of avalanche size.The impact of the China’s supply crisis on the U.S. trade in unwrought metal gallium and germanium products is not direct,but rather indirect through intermediary countries such as Belgium and Switzerland.It is advisable to enhance supply security within the industrial chain through international economic cooperation,while also mitigating geopolitical risks stemming from the United States.Furthermore,expanding economic and trade relations with developing countries like Brazil is recommended.
Qiumin LIAO , Liuyan XIE , Jiawen HAN . Study on the Evolution of Global Gallium and Germanium Metal Trade Network Patterns and Supply Crisis Dissemination[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2024 , 32(4) : 717 -730 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2024.04.088
null | Bohorquez J C, Gourley S, A Ret al Dixon,2009.Common ecology quantifies human insurgency[J].Nature,462(7275):911-914. |
null | Cai Wei, Sun Dongyang, Zhou Minghao,et al,2021.Development status of third-generation wide-bandwidth power semiconductors and applications[J].Science and Technology Review,39(14):42-55. |
null | Castellano C, Fortunato S, Loreto V,2009.Statistical physics of social dynamics[J].Review Modern Physics,81:591-646. |
null | Chen Ruiqiang, He Qing, Liu Mai,2020.development situation and application prospect of gallium metal industry in china[J].China Nonferrous Metals,(13):40-41. |
null | Chen Wei, Wang Xinrui, Long Yan,et al,2024.Study on the resilience of trade networks in regions along the “Belt and Road”[J].Economic Geography,44(1):22-31. |
null | Daley D J, Gani J,1999. Epidemic Modeling[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press. |
null | Yanran Dun, Jing Haipeng, Cairen Lobsang,et al,2019.Study on the distribution,supply,demand and consumption trends of global gallium ore resources[J].Conservation and Utilisation of Mineral Resources,39(5):9-15,25. |
null | Commission European,2010.Critical raw materials for the EU.Report of the Ad hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials[R].Brussels:European Commission. |
null | Commission European,2023.Critical raw materials for the EU.Report of the Ad hoc Working Group on defining critical raw materials[R].Brussels:European Commission. |
null | Guo Cailian, Jiao He, Li Ying,et al,2013.Study on the fugacity state of associated silver,cadmium and gallium in the Honghuaping lead-zinc ore in Shaanxi[J].Gold Science and Technology,21(2):13-18. |
null | Han Shitong, Li Huajiao,2023.Progress and frontiers of research on mineral resource supply risk[J].Resource Science,45(9):1723-1745. |
null | Huang Jianbai, Sun Fang, Song Yi,2020.Risk assessment of supply of key metals for clean energy technologies[J].Resource Science,42(8):1477-1488. |
null | Kali R, Reyes J,2007.The architecture of globalization:A network approach to international economic integration[J].Journal of International Business Studies,38:595-620. |
null | Lee K M, Yang J S, Kim G,et al,2011.Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises[J].PLoS One,6(3):e18443. |
null | Leland W E, Taqqu M S, Willinger W,et al,1995.On the self-similar nature of ethernet traffic[J].ACM SIGCOMM Computer Communication Review,25(1):202-213. |
null | Li Chun, Deng Junkai,2017.Overview analysis of the third generation semiconductor industry[J].Application of Integrated Circuit,34(2):87-90. |
null | Li Xiangna, Huang Chong, Li Ying,2016.Analysis of global germanium resource supply and demand pattern[J].China Mining Magazine,25(Supp.1):13-17,21. |
null | Liao Qiumin, Luo Lianying,2023.Evolution of the global trade network pattern of rare earth products and its influencing factors[J].Gold Science and Technology,31(5):823-834. |
null | Liu Mai, Li Yilan, Zhang Rui,et al,2020.Global gallium resources status and supply and demand situation[J].Natural Resources Information,(10):50-54,26. |
null | Liu Min, Xue Weixian, Zhao Jing,2021.Competitive complementary relationships and their evolution in global digital trade-Based on social network analysis approach[J].International Economic and Trade Exploration,37(10):54-69. |
null | Lu Ting, Liu Xuan, Zhang Yanfei,et al,2015.Research on the development strategy of China’s indium germanium gallium industry based on industry chain analysis[J].Resource Science,37(5):1008-1017. |
null | Xingchang Sa, Gao Tianming, Zhang Yan,2023.Study on global lithium carbonate trade pattern and supply crisis propagation[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,44(2):341-350. |
null | Shen Xi, Guo Haixiang, Cheng Jinhua,2022.Resilience assessment of key mineral supply chain network nodes under unexpected risks—A case study of nickel mineral products[J].Resource Science,44(1):85-96. |
null | Song Mingmei, Zhang Hailiang, Dong Yang,2023.Transmission mechanism and effect of international non-ferrous metal price fluctuation on China’s industrial chain-Based on a two-layer complex network model[J].Resource Science,45(4):812-826. |
null | Sun X Q, Shi Q, Hao X Q,2022.Supply crisis propagation in the global cobalt trade network[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,179:106035. |
null | Survey U.S.Geological,2023.Mineral commodity summaries 2023[R].New York:U.S.Geological Survey. |
null | Wang Chang, Song Huiling, Zuo Lüshui,et al,2018.Risk assessment of China’s dominant metals supplying global demand[J].Journal of Natural Resources,33(7):1218-1229. |
null | Wang Nuo, Dong Lingling, Wu Nuan,et al,2016.Changes in vulnerability of global containerized maritime transport networks under deliberate attacks[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(2):293-303. |
null | Wang X X, Li H J, Yao H J,et al,2018.Simulation analysis of the spread of a supply crisis based on the global natural graphite trade network[J].Resources Policy,59:200-209. |
null | Wang X X, Wang A J, Zhu D P,2022.Simulation analysis of supply crisis propagation based on global nickel industry chain[J].Frontiers in Energy Research,10:919510. |
null | Wei Long, Dang Xinghua,2017.Research on the cascading failure model of interdependent technology innovation networks based on organization-practice[J].Management Review,29(11):74-88. |
null | Wu Qiujie, Zhenfu Lü, Cao Jincheng,et al,2021.Study on the distribution supply and demand of gallium resources at home and abroad and the current status of gallium industry chain development[J].Multipurpose Utilization of Mineral Resources,(5):38-44. |
null | Xu Helian, Sun Tianyang, Cheng Lihong,2015.Research on the trade pattern and influencing factors of high-end manufacturing industry in the “Belt and Road”—An exponential random graph analysis based on complex network[J].Finance and Trade Economics,409(12):74-88. |
null | Yang Wenlong, Du Debin, Ma Yahua,et al,2018.Spatial structure and proximity of trade networks in countries along the “Belt and Road”[J].Geographical Research,37(11):2218-2235. |
null | Zhang Linchen, Wang Yue, Dong Yinguo,2023.Vulnerability study of international agricultural trade networks[J].Problems of Agricultural Economics,(12):130-144. |
null | Zhang Yujia, Zhang Xiaoping, Gong Zezhou,2017.Analysis of trade dependence between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road”[J].Economic Geography,37(4):21-31. |
null | Zhao Feiyan, Zhang Xiaodong, Guo Zhaohua,et al,2017.Distribution,production and application prospects of gallium metal[J].Light Metals,(3):1-3. |
null | Zhou Jing, Gong Kai, Luo Shilong,et al,2018.Simulation analysis and research on economic crisis propagation on international trade networks[J].Application Research of Computers,35(1):83-87. |
null | Zhou M, Wu G, Xu H,2016.Structure and formation of top networks in international trade,2001—2010[J].Social Networks,44:9-21. |
null | 蔡蔚,孙东阳,周铭浩,等,2021.第三代宽禁带功率半导体及应用发展现状[J].科技导报,39(14):42-55. |
null | 陈瑞强,何青,刘麦,2020.我国金属镓产业发展态势及应用前景[J].中国有色金属,(13):40-41. |
null | 陈伟,王芯芮,龙燕,等,2024.“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性研究[J].经济地理,44(1):22-31. |
null | 敦妍冉,荆海鹏,洛桑才仁,等,2019.全球镓矿资源分布、供需及消费趋势研究[J].矿产保护与利用,39(5):9-15,25. |
null | 郭彩莲,焦和,李英,等,2013.陕西红花坪铅锌矿中伴生银、镉、镓的赋存状态研究[J].黄金科学技术,21(2):13-18. |
null | 韩世通,李华姣,2023.矿产资源供应风险研究进展和前沿[J].资源科学,45(9):1723-1745. |
null | 黄健柏,孙芳,宋益,2020.清洁能源技术关键金属供应风险评估[J].资源科学,42(8):1477-1488. |
null | 李春,邓君楷,2017.第三代半导体产业概况剖析[J].集成电路应用,34(2):87-90. |
null | 李向娜,黄翀,李颖,2016.全球锗资源供需格局分析[J].中国矿业,25(增1):13-17,21. |
null | 廖秋敏,罗连英,2023.稀土产品全球贸易网络格局演化及其影响因素[J].黄金科学技术,31(5):823-834. |
null | 刘麦,李伊兰,张睿,等,2020.全球镓资源现状及供需形势[J].国土资源情报,(10):50-54,26. |
null | 刘敏,薛伟贤,赵璟,2021.全球数字贸易中的竞争互补关系及其演化——基于社会网络分析方法[J].国际经贸探索,37(10):54-69. |
null | 陆挺,刘璇,张艳飞,等,2015.基于产业链分析的中国铟锗镓产业发展战略研究[J].资源科学,37(5):1008-1017. |
null | 撒兴昌,高天明,张艳,2023.全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究[J].地球学报,44(2):341-350. |
null | 沈曦,郭海湘,成金华,2022.突发风险下关键矿产供应链网络节点韧性评估——以镍矿产品为例[J].资源科学,44(1):85-96. |
null | 宋明媚,张海亮,董洋,2023.国际有色金属价格波动对中国产业链的传导机制与效应——基于双层复杂网络模型[J].资源科学,45(4):812-826. |
null | 王昶,宋慧玲,左绿水,等,2018.中国优势金属供应全球需求的风险评估[J].自然资源学报,33(7):1218-1229. |
null | 王诺,董玲玲,吴暖,等,2016.蓄意攻击下全球集装箱海运网络脆弱性变化[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):293-303. |
null | 魏龙,党兴华,2017.基于组织—惯例的相依技术创新网络级联失效模型研究[J].管理评论,29(11):74-88. |
null | 武秋杰,吕振福,曹进成,等,2021.国内外镓资源分布供需及镓产业链发展现状研究[J].矿产综合利用,(5):38-44. |
null | 许和连,孙天阳,成丽红,2015.“一带一路”高端制造业贸易格局及影响因素研究——基于复杂网络的指数随机图分析[J].财贸经济,409(12):74-88. |
null | 杨文龙,杜德斌,马亚华,等,2018.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性[J].地理研究,37(11):2218-2235. |
null | 张琳琛,王悦,董银果,2023.国际农产品贸易网络的脆弱性研究[J].农业经济问题,(12):130-144. |
null | 张雨佳,张晓平,龚则周,2017.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易依赖度分析[J].经济地理,37(4):21-31. |
null | 赵飞燕,张小东,郭昭华,等,2017.金属镓的分布、生产及应用前景[J].轻金属,(3):1-3. |
null | 周靖,龚凯,罗仕龙,等,2018.国际贸易网络上经济危机传播的仿真分析与研究[J].计算机应用研究,35(1):83-87. |
/
〈 |
|
〉 |