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[an error occurred while processing this directive]Reliability Analysis of Intelligent Shoveling System Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree and Monte Carlo Method
Received date: 2022-10-09
Revised date: 2023-02-23
Online published: 2023-07-20
With the intellectualization of mining equipment,its reliability problem is becoming more and more prominent,and has become an important topic in the mining industry.In this work,the method combining fuzzy fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed to analyze the reliability of the intelligent shovel system for actual operation in the Sanshandao mine.By analyzing the performance of the system and its operation condition in the mine,the main factors affecting the reliability of the intelligent shovel operation system were determined.Taking the operation failure of the intelligent shovel system as the top event,16 intermediate events,as well as 33 bottom events,were determined,and a fault tree model was established through field investigation,literature review and expert discussion,etc.Using the method of fuzzy set theory,the language values were transformed into fuzzy numbers according to the corresponding affiliation functions by the results feedback from 10 experts.Then,the fuzzy number was transformed into the corresponding probability of brittle failure and probability of failure by using the formula of fuzzy number,upon which the probability of occurrence of the bottom event was obtained.Based on the occurrence probability of each bottom event,the quantitative analysis of the fault tree was carried out to obtain the minimum cut set of the fault tree.Thus,the probability of failure of intelligent shovel operation was calculated,and its value is 0.3481%,which is in line with the actual situation of production.In order to obtain the dynamic law of system reliability with time,the Monte Carlo simulation method was used based on the established fault tree model.The simulation parameters and process were set reasonably,and the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was written,upon which the mean time to failure,reliability and unreliability curves and system failure probability curves were obtained.Through the analysis of the results,the effective running time and the change in the failure probability of the system were judged,which can provide a reference for the maintenance of the equipment.Moreover,the simulation importance of the bottom events was also calculated.The results indicate that the management reason(operation specification failure) and personnel reason(information communication failure) have the greatest impact on system reliability,and the most influential mechanical reasons are operation device failure and brake system aging.Managing from the above events,the probability of system failure can be effectively reduced.The results are consistent with the actual engineering situation,which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.This work can provide a reference for the production and operation of the mine and can be promoted in mines and other industries.
Zhixiang LIU , Kai WANG , Xiaocong YANG , Chuanchuan WAN , Yucheng ZHOU . Reliability Analysis of Intelligent Shoveling System Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree and Monte Carlo Method[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2023 , 31(3) : 477 -486 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2023.03.139
http://www.goldsci.ac.cn/article/2023/1005-2518/1005-2518-2023-31-3-477.shtml
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