/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
Research on Influencing Factors of International Gold Futures Price
Received date: 2020-11-07
Revised date: 2021-03-08
Online published: 2021-10-11
Based on the dual functions of commodity and currency，this paper takes the great influence of gold price fluctuation on the world economy.At present，most of the literatures analyze the influencing factors of international gold futures price fluctuation from three aspects of supply and demand，finance and index.However，due to the instability of the global political and economic environment，international gold futures prices fluctuate violently.Few scholars consider the impact of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on the price fluctuations of international gold futures.At the same time，few scholars combine the above two factors with other variables to analyze the influencing factors of international gold futures price.In order to better explore the main influencing factors of international gold futures price，this paper used the monthly price data of international gold futures from 2000 to 2019，using VAR model，VECM model，cointegration test，impulse response and variance decomposition to conduct empirical research.At the same time，Granger causality test was used to analyze the causal relationship between the variables and the international gold futures price.The analysis focuses on the results of impulse response，which is different from the method of orthogonal impulse response in traditional dynamic analysis.In this paper，the generalized impulse response analysis method was used.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between international gold futures price and geopolitical risk，economic policy uncertainty，dollar index，interest rate level，U.S. inflation level and the D-value between global gold supply and demand，and dollar index have the most significant impact on international gold futures price.Geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties have a positive impact on the international gold futures price in the short term，while the positive impact of economic policy uncertainties is longer.This paper provides a better theoretical basis for predicting the trend of gold price.
Minggui ZHENG , Tianqi CAO , Jianlin ZENG . Research on Influencing Factors of International Gold Futures Price[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2021 , 29(4) : 510 -524 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2021.04.194
http://www.goldsci.ac.cn/article/2021/1005-2518/1005-2518-2021-29-4-510.shtml
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
陈艳艳，2018.政治不确定性与企业行为研究述评［J］.财会通讯，（6）：116-123，129.
|
|
冯辉，张蜀林，2012.国际黄金期货价格决定要素的实证分析［J］.中国管理科学，20（增1）：424-428.
|
|
冯钰瑶，刘畅，孙晓蕾，2020.不确定性与原油市场的交互影响测度：基于综合集成的多尺度方法论［J］.管理评论，32（7）：29-40.
|
|
高菲，顾炜宇，2018.“一般商品-保值手段”双重属性视角下的国际黄金价格影响因素研究［J］.中国软科学，（5）：160-170.
|
|
胡恩同，2005.黄金的双重属性与其价格决定机制［J］.黄金科学技术，13（5）：1-7.
|
|
华健，刘辰君，2010.从供需角度看黄金价格的变化［J］.金融与经济，（12）：30-33.
|
|
黄国轩，2019.我国黄金期货市场价格发现功能实证研究［J］.价格理论与实践，（9）：92-95.
|
|
刘昊然，2007.黄金价格影响因素和投资策略分析［J］.价格理论与实践，（10）：57-58.
|
|
刘杰，2017.石油与黄金的价格联动分析［J］.黄金，38（2）：5-7，14.
|
|
刘曙光，胡再勇，2008.黄金价格的长期决定因素稳定性分析［J］.世界经济研究，12（2）：35-41，87.
|
|
陆国庆，李明雪，2017.美元指数与黄金价格联动性研究［J］.价格理论与实践，（5）：109-112.
|
|
杨柳勇，史震涛，2004.黄金价格的长期决定因素分析［J］.统计研究，21（6）：21-24.
|
|
杨胜刚，陈帅立，王盾，2014.中国黄金期货价格影响因素研究［J］.财经理论与实践，35（3）：44-48.
|
|
杨叶，2007.黄金价格和石油价格的联动分析［J］.黄金，28（2）：4-7.
|
|
杨振国，张彤，2009.黄金市场投机度分析［J］.财会月刊，4（12）：41-43.
|
|
张次兰，郇红艳，2009.石油价格与黄金价格的实证分析［J］.西南金融，（3）：50-51.
|
|
张启迪，2017.全球黄金价格的影响因素及未来趋势［J］.南方金融，（4）：74-83.
|
|
邹子昂，彭啸帆，皮俊，2018.国际黄金现货市场的避险能力研究——基于DCC-GARCH模型［J］.财经理论与实践，39（6）：44-50.
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |