Research on Safety Evaluation of Tailings Pond Based on Entropy Method-Catastrophe Theory
Received date: 2019-12-10
Revised date: 2020-03-22
Online published: 2020-07-01
Tailings pond is a man-made source of dangerous debris flow with high potential energy，which threatens the safety of downstream residents and facilities.In recent years，tailings pond accidents have occurred frequently，causing extremely casualties, environmental pollution and bad social impact.In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents，the actual safety of the tailings pond must be scientifically evaluated.Aiming at the problems that complex causes of tailings dam accidents，many influencing factors of safety conditions，and difficulty in determining the proportion of each evaluation index in the whole system，this paper proposes a tailings dam safety evaluation method combining entropy method and catastrophe theory.Based on the “Four Factors”（people，things，management，environment） theory of safety management in system engineering，the safety status of the tailing pond is affected from the aspects of personnel status（A），the status of tailing pond itself （B），safety management（C） and environmental impact factors （D）were decomposed，and an index system of 3 layers and 11 underlying indicators was established.When in use，firstly，entropy method is used to sort the importance of evaluation indexes，and then catastrophe theory is used to calculate to obtain the catastrophe grade value of tailing pond，and finally the comprehensive safety grade of tailing pond is obtained.The method was applied to a engineering project，and the case studies show that the relative importance ranking results of the underlying indicators are：｛A2，A3，A1｝，｛B1，B3，B2｝，｛C3，C1，C2｝，｛D1，D2｝.The relative importance ranking results of the middle indicators are：｛B，C，A，D｝.Then use the normal formula to calculate the total mutation level value is 0.9641，the mutation membership function value is 0.86，means the security level belongs to a safer level.This result is consistent with the results obtained by the expert group，and is in line with the basic situation of the tailings pond.The safety evaluation method based on entropy method-catastrophe theory can be adapted to the safety evaluation of tailings pond.
Zhenxing GAO , Jinping GUO . Research on Safety Evaluation of Tailings Pond Based on Entropy Method-Catastrophe Theory[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2020 , 28(3) : 450 -456 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2020.03.197
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