Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Tailings Reservoir Based on Fuzzy Multivariate Contact Model

Shi WANG; Yong SHI; Wanyin WANG

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.06.903

Highlights

Tailings reservoir is an important facility to store tailings, and it is a dangerous source with high potential energy, there is a risk of dam break.Once the tailings reservoir is crashed, it will seriously affect the safety of people’s lives and property and destroy the local ecological environment, so it is of great significance to evaluate and predict the safety of tailings reservoir. For the tailings pond is a nonlinear complex system, there are many uncertain factors in the process of safety evaluation and prediction of tailing pond, and the factors are interrelated and coupled, so the safety evaluation of tailing pond has uncertainty.In order to accurately evaluate the safety level of the tailings pond，the Huangjindong tailings reservoir was used as a sample，and the relationship between various factors in the safety of the tailings pond was analyzed.Comprehensive application of fuzzy multi-connection theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)，a comprehensive safety assessment model for tailings pond with five influencing factors and 26 influencing factors was constructed.The weighting coefficient of each subjective and objective index was obtained by AHP，and the evaluation index was graded. In order to quantify some qualitative factors，the fuzzy multi-connection degree theory was introduced to identify the uncertain factors affecting the safety of the tailings pond.The combination of certainty and uncertainty was considered to deal with the comprehensive integration problem, and the measured values of quantitative indicators of membership function were constructed.The results show that the comprehensive safety evaluation score of the Huangjindong tailings pond is 80.052，and its safety grade of the golden hole tailings pond is Ⅱ，and the tailings pond was in a relatively stable state.By calculating the degree of contact between the first-level indicators，the degree of opposition c is 0.0615，the degree of identity a is 0.5633，a>c，set pair potential is the same potential，and the investment and management of safe production should be strengthened.Using the five-element relationship function to calculate the uncertainty of five influencing factors，through calculation，safety management（B ₁），tailings dam（B ₂），tailings discharge（B ₃），flood discharge system （B ₄） and tailings transport and return water（B ₅），the uncertainty of the five indicators is 0.4013，0.4240，0.5132，0.0148 and 0.2644. By comparing the size of the uncertainty factor，tailings discharge（B ₃）>tailings dam（B ₂）>safety management（B ₁）tailings transport and return water（B ₅）>flood discharge system（B ₄）.In the end，tailings discharge is the most uncertain factor，and it is necessary to strengthen the management of tailings discharge.The evaluation results obtained by the model are consistent with the actual results，which provided a feasible method for the safety evaluation of the tailings pond.

Cite this article

Shi WANG , Yong SHI , Wanyin WANG . Comprehensive Safety Evaluation of Tailings Reservoir Based on Fuzzy Multivariate Contact Model[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2019 , 27(6) : 903 -911 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.06.903

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