基于变权联系云的采空区稳定性二维评价模型

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2020.01.052

Abstract

Abstract:

The instability of the goaf poses serious threat to mine safety，and its stability is affected by many uncertain factors.Therefore，it is very important to evaluate the stability of the goaf.Many factors affect the result in the evaluation process，for instance，many ambiguity and randomness information exist in the evaluation of the goaf stability，the evaluation index interval normally distributed，dynamic combination of different evaluation index affect the weight values，and the inconsistency of the indicator level.In order to solve these problems，a two-dimensional evaluation model of goaf stability based on variable-weighted cloud was established.On the basis of comprehensive consider the actual situation of the goaf and related research results，the stability evaluation system and grading standards of the goaf were established.The digital characteristics of the contact cloud of each evaluation index belonging to different levels were calculated respectively，and then the contact cloud maps were generated by using the contact cloud generator and Rstudio software.Substituting the measured values of the sample indicators into the contact cloud model to calculate the degree of certainty of the contact cloud.After that，the subjective weight and objective weight were calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method respectively.Considering the advantages and disadvantages of the subjective and objective weighting methods，the game theory was used to fuse these two empowerment methods to obtain the optimized comprehensive weight.Considering that comprehensive weights calculated by game theory were constant weight，which could not reflect the influence of the index value on the weight，the variable weight theory was used to change the weight to obtain the variable weight，so as to better display the effect of dynamic change of the index value on evaluation result.The comprehensive determination degree of the goaf was then obtained by calculating the certainty degree of measured index value belongs to each contact level cloud and the final variable weight.After that，the stability level of the gob was determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree.In order to solve the problem of inconsistent index level attribution，fuzzy entropy was introduced as the second dimension evaluation auxiliary parameter to characterize the stability complexity of the goaf.The model was applied to engineering practice and compared with traditional cloud model and matter-element extension model，the evaluation results are basically the same.The results show that the stability evaluation model of the goaf is scientific and reasonable，and it provides a new idea for the stability evaluation of goaf and the stability evaluation of similar projects.

Key words: goaf stability, variable weight theory, contact cloud, combined weight, certainty, fuzzy entropy

CLC Number:

TD853

Hongwei DENG,Weiyou ZHANG,Songtao YU,Yuxu GAO. Two Dimensional Evaluation Model of Goaf Stability Based on Variable Weight Contact Cloud[J].Gold Science and Technology, 2020, 28(1): 32-41.

Figures/Tables 6

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Table 1

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Table 3

Table 4

References 21

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分组	评价指标	Ⅳ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅰ级
定性指标	评分值	[0，25）	[25，50）	[50，75）	[75，100]
	岩体构造C₁ （效益型）	块夹泥、泥夹块结构	镶嵌、层状碎裂和碎裂结构	层状和板状结构	整体、块状和菱块状结构
	地质构造C₂ （效益型）	断层贯穿围岩和矿体	褶皱影响大或断层部分切割	褶皱对采空区影响小	无断层、褶皱构造
	水文状况C₃ （效益型）	采空区内存在大量涌水情况	采空区内存在的地下水水量很大	采空区内存在的地下水水量较少	采空区内不存在地下水
	工程布置C₄ （效益型）	运输、采准、切割布置极不合理，不考虑空区稳定性	运输、采准、切割布置不合理，很少考虑空区稳定性	运输、采准、切割布置较合理，考虑到空区稳定性	运输、采准、切割布置合理，充分考虑空区稳定性
	爆破扰动影响C₅ （效益型）	爆破扰动对采空区影响很大	爆破扰动对采空区影响较大	爆破扰动对采空区影响一般	爆破扰动对采空区没有影响
	相邻空区分布C₆ （效益型）	影响范围内采空区数量很多，且集中分布	影响范围内采空区数量多，但分布较分散	影响范围内采空区数量较少	影响范围内无采空区
	支护情况C₇ （效益型）	无支护	支护不合理	支护较合理	支护合理
定量指标	岩石抗压强度C₈/MPa（效益型）	0~50	50~100	100~200	>200
	岩石质量指标C₉/%（效益型）	0~40	40~50	50~60	>60
	顶板暴露面积C₁₀/m²（成本型）	>2 700	1 200~2 700	800~1 200	0~800
	跨度C₁₁/m （成本型）	>120	80~120	40~80	0~40
	埋藏深度C₁₂/m （成本型）	>350	300~350	250~300	0~250

确定度	采空区稳定性评价指标
确定度	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	C₅	C₆	C₇	C₈	C₉	C₁₀	C₁₁	C₁₂
Ⅰ	0.0101	0.2668	0.0703	0	0.2668	0.0101	0.0101	0.0047	0	0.0178	0	0
Ⅱ	0.9764	0.7844	0.9741	0.2319	0.7844	0.9764	0.9764	0.9342	0.8996	0.7761	0.0315	0.5001
Ⅲ	0.0703	0.2319	0.0101	0.7844	0.2319	0.0703	0.0703	0.2393	0.1393	0.3998	1	0.5001
Ⅳ	0	0	0	0.0003	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0315	0

采空区编号	综合确定度				本文方法	云模型^[4]	物元可拓法
采空区编号	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	本文方法	云模型^[4]	物元可拓法
1	0.0752	0.8959	0.3019	0.0001	Ⅱ（模糊性较高）	Ⅲ	Ⅱ
2	0.0188	0.3491	0.6984	0.0996	Ⅲ（模糊性较高）	Ⅲ	Ⅲ
3	0.5377	0.1873	0.1951	0.0026	Ⅰ（模糊性高）	Ⅰ	Ⅰ
4	0.0427	0.5167	0.5871	0.0677	Ⅲ（模糊性高）	Ⅲ	Ⅲ
5	0.1441	0.6955	0.3842	0.0851	Ⅲ（模糊性高）	Ⅱ	Ⅲ
6	0.0131	0.1272	0.6066	0.3015	Ⅲ（模糊性高）	Ⅲ	Ⅳ
7	0.0006	0.1206	0.2265	0.6711	Ⅳ（模糊性较高）	Ⅳ	Ⅳ
8	0.0042	0.3621	0.7469	0.0925	Ⅲ（模糊性较高）	Ⅲ	Ⅲ
9	0.1105	0.8319	0.2301	0.0144	Ⅱ（模糊性较高）	Ⅱ	Ⅱ
10	0.0810	0.8760	0.2301	0.0144	Ⅱ（模糊性较高）	Ⅱ	Ⅱ

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Two Dimensional Evaluation Model of Goaf Stability Based on Variable Weight Contact Cloud

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采空区编号	评价指标实测值
采空区编号	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	C₅	C₆	C₇	C₈	C₉	C₁₀	C₁₁	C₁₂
1	40	45	35	55	45	40	70	83	47	1 121	100	300
2	50	65	55	60	45	55	75	91	48	973	65	325
3	10	15	10	20	25	15	55	89	47	936	79	330
4	65	45	50	70	40	55	60	87	45	1 104	70	275
5	30	35	45	40	45	50	60	77	43	1 045	88	330
6	65	55	80	60	65	60	75	86	56	1 034	76	255
7	80	85	90	75	90	65	85	83	42	1 057	82	290
8	60	65	55	70	55	65	50	85	44	1 156	78	275
9	45	50	30	50	40	45	35	76	51	907	85	300
10	35	30	35	40	45	40	50	71	48	1 032	71	345