黄锴强(1995-),男,江西赣州人,硕士研究生,从事资源经济与管理工作。hkq1995@126.com |
收稿日期: 2020-07-25
修回日期: 2020-09-27
网络出版日期: 2021-05-28
基金资助
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“基于绿色度的离子型稀土资源开发与生态修复一体化技术研究”(GJJ200842)
江西理工大学繁荣哲学社会科学项目“离子型稀土资源开发负外部性及其生态补偿机制研究”(FZ18-YB-09)
Analysis of the Influential Factors on the Treatment Effect of Abandoned Rare Earth Mine Based on ISM and ANP
Received date: 2020-07-25
Revised date: 2020-09-27
Online published: 2021-05-28
为系统了解关键因素对废弃稀土矿山治理效果的影响机理,从自然禀赋、矿业活动、环境污染、土地资源脆弱程度、景观生态、治理工程、管理技术和政策响应8个方面构建了废弃稀土矿山治理效果影响因素指标体系。基于解释结构模型(ISM)和网络层次分析模型(ANP),研究各指标间的相互影响关系,找到影响废弃稀土矿山治理效果的主要因素,为今后开展废弃稀土矿山治理工作提供科学建议。研究结果表明:(1)废弃稀土矿山治理效果影响因素指标体系是具有10级递阶结构的复杂系统,可划分为表层直接影响因素、中间层间接影响因素和深层根本影响因素3个层级;(2)开采面积、主要开采方式、建矿时间、植被覆盖度、水土流失面积比和土地复垦工程所占权重较大,是影响废弃稀土矿山治理效果的主要因素。基于研究结果,认为联络线工程和工作督查在我国废弃稀土矿山治理工作中起着关键性作用,同时应加强对稀土开采的源头管控,注重对废弃稀土矿区土地资源的修复,推动废弃稀土矿山治理效果的提升。
黄锴强 , 徐水太 , 薛飞 . 基于ISM和ANP的废弃稀土矿山治理效果影响因素分析[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2021 , 29(2) : 306 -314 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2021.02.136
Rare earth elements are widely used in China’s industry and agriculture.They are important non renewable resources and are known as “industrial vitamins”.In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy and society,the demand for rare earth is also increasing.In pursuit of economic benefits,rare earth mining has left many abandoned rare earth mines.The serious damage of surface vegetation has led to serious environmental problems such as soil erosion and debris flow,which has gradually attracted the attention of the state and all walks of life.In order to understand the key factors that affect the governance effect of abandoned rare earth mines,provide scientific advice for the development of the governance of abandoned rare earth mines,this paper carried out research on the factors affecting the governance effect of abandoned rare earth mines. In the aspects of natural endowment,mining activities,environmental pollution,vulnerability of land resources,landscape ecology,treatment engineering,management technology and policy response,the influencing factors index system had been built to analyze treatment effect of abandoned rare earth mine.Based on the interpretative structural model (ISM),the direct influence relationship between indicators was analyzed,and the hierarchical structure of influencing factors was constructed.The influence of each index on the treatment effect of abandoned rare earth mine was analyzed from three aspects of impact factor,middle indirect influence factor and deep fundamental influence factor.Then,the relationship between the indicators had been put forward to build analytic hierarchy process model (ANP).And the main index factors of abandoned rare earth mine governance were found by calculating the weight influencing factors.The results show that the index system of influencing factors on the treatment effect of abandoned rare earth mines can be divided into complex system with 10 levels of hierarchical structure,which can be divided into three levels:Direct influencing factors of surface layer,indirect influencing factors of intermediate layer and fundamental influencing factors of deep layer.Mining area,main mining methods,mining time, mining activities,area ratio of soil and water loss under landscape ecology,and treatment project accounted for more than 0.05,which were the main factors affecting the treatment effect of abandoned rare earth mines.Based on the research results,the tie line project and work supervision are located in the key position of the hierarchical structure model,connecting the preceding with the following,playing an important connectivity role in the governance work,which needs the management department to pay more attention to.The mining activities and landscape ecological criteria layer occupy the largest weight among all the criteria layers,so the regulatory authorities should strengthen the supervision of rare earth mining and land resources damage,do a good job in source control,and pay attention to the restoration of land resources in abandoned rare earth mining areas,so as to prevent the further deterioration of environmental problems of abandoned rare earth mines and accelerate the green development of abandoned rare earth mines.
黄金需求趋势:2021年第一季度全球黄金需求达815.7 t
随着全球经济的持续回暖,强势复苏的消费者需求弥补了黄金ETF持仓的减少。第一季度全球黄金需求(不含场外交易)为815.7 t,与2020年第四季度基本持平,但与2020年第一季度相比下降了23%。
尽管第一季度的平均金价同比上涨了13%,但季环比下跌4%。1 比去年相对低的金价刺激了黄金的消费需求,特别是许多市场逐步解除疫情封锁,且经济开始复苏则为需求增长进一步提供了支撑。
第一季度金饰需求为477.4 t,同比上涨52%,较疲弱的2020年第一季度有明显提升。以金额计,全球金饰需求达275亿美元,是2013年以来最高的第一季度总额。逢低买入以及对通胀压力的预期令全球金条和金币投资总量升至339.5 t,同比增长36%。
黄金ETF的显著流出抵消了消费需求的强劲增长。利率上升及金价的下跌趋势抑制了部分投资者对黄金的兴趣,全球黄金ETF在第一季度净流出177.9 t。
第一季度各国央行的购金步伐稳健:全球官方黄金储备增加95.5 t,同比下降23%,但环比增长20%。由于消费者信心继续恢复,第一季度科技用金同比增长11%。81.2 t的需求量略高于80.9 t的5年季度均值。
黄金的总供应量在第一季度同比下降了4%。回收金供应的减少主要是由于黄金价格下跌超过了金矿产量的增长。
http://www.goldsci.ac.cn/article/2021/1005-2518/1005-2518-2021-29-2-306.shtml
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