针对尾矿库事故原因复杂、安全状况影响因素多以及各评价指标在整个系统中所占的比重难以确定的问题，提出了熵值法与突变理论相结合的尾矿库安全评价方法。基于系统工程中安全管理“四因素”理论，从人员状况（A）、尾矿库本身状况（B）、安全管理（C）和环境影响（D）4个方面对影响尾矿库安全状况的因素进行了分解，建立了指标体系。首先运用熵值法对评价指标的重要性进行排序，然后使用突变理论进行计算，得出尾矿库的突变级数值，最终得出尾矿库的综合安全状况等级。工程实例研究表明，基于熵值法—突变理论的安全评价方法适用于尾矿库安全评价。

Tailings pond is a man-made source of dangerous debris flow with high potential energy，which threatens the safety of downstream residents and facilities.In recent years，tailings pond accidents have occurred frequently，causing extremely casualties, environmental pollution and bad social impact.In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents，the actual safety of the tailings pond must be scientifically evaluated.Aiming at the problems that complex causes of tailings dam accidents，many influencing factors of safety conditions，and difficulty in determining the proportion of each evaluation index in the whole system，this paper proposes a tailings dam safety evaluation method combining entropy method and catastrophe theory.Based on the “Four Factors”（people，things，management，environment） theory of safety management in system engineering，the safety status of the tailing pond is affected from the aspects of personnel status（A），the status of tailing pond itself （B），safety management（C） and environmental impact factors （D）were decomposed，and an index system of 3 layers and 11 underlying indicators was established.When in use，firstly，entropy method is used to sort the importance of evaluation indexes，and then catastrophe theory is used to calculate to obtain the catastrophe grade value of tailing pond，and finally the comprehensive safety grade of tailing pond is obtained.The method was applied to a engineering project，and the case studies show that the relative importance ranking results of the underlying indicators are：｛A₂，A₃，A₁｝，｛B₁，B₃，B₂｝，｛C₃，C₁，C₂｝，｛D₁，D₂｝.The relative importance ranking results of the middle indicators are：｛B，C，A，D｝.Then use the normal formula to calculate the total mutation level value is 0.9641，the mutation membership function value is 0.86，means the security level belongs to a safer level.This result is consistent with the results obtained by the expert group，and is in line with the basic situation of the tailings pond.The safety evaluation method based on entropy method-catastrophe theory can be adapted to the safety evaluation of tailings pond.

http://www.goldsci.ac.cn/article/2020/1005-2518/1005-2518-2020-28-3-450.shtml